xgEdge

Expected goals

FK Novi Pazar expected goals (xG) 2026/2027

SuperLiga (Serbia) · after 8 matches · updated 1 Oct

FK Novi Pazar's attacking and defensive expected goals in SuperLiga (Serbia) 2026/2027, compared with the results they produced and with the rest of the competition.

FK Novi Pazar xG and xGA per match

Every match ↓
Attack
2.00 xG per match
#6/14
Attack (xG per match) across SuperLiga (Serbia), best first
Rank Club xG per match
#1 FK Crvena zvezda 2.78
#2 FK Vojvodina 2.77
#3 FK Partizan 2.36
#4 FK Radnički 1923 2.14
#5 FK Železničar Pančevo 2.13
#6 FK Novi Pazar 2.00
#7 FK IMT Beograd 1.85
#8 FK Radnik Surdulica 1.62
#9 FK Čukarički 1.50
#10 FK Radnički Niš 1.48
#11 OFK Beograd 1.29
#12 FK Mladost Lučani 1.08
#13 FK Mačva Šabac 0.80
#14 FK Zemun 0.73
League avg
1.76
Total
16.01 8 matches
Defence
2.04 xGA per match
#10/14
Defence (xGA per match) across SuperLiga (Serbia), best first
Rank Club xGA per match
#1 FK Crvena zvezda 0.98
#2 FK IMT Beograd 1.13
#3 FK Železničar Pančevo 1.26
#4 FK Radnički 1923 1.35
#5 FK Radnički Niš 1.42
#6 FK Radnik Surdulica 1.46
#7 FK Vojvodina 1.49
#8 FK Partizan 1.55
#9 FK Čukarički 1.67
#10 FK Novi Pazar 2.04
#11 OFK Beograd 2.09
#12 FK Mladost Lučani 2.11
#13 FK Mačva Šabac 2.46
#14 FK Zemun 3.60
League avg
1.76
Total
16.32 8 matches
xG difference
-0.04 xGD per match
#9/14
xG difference (xGD per match) across SuperLiga (Serbia), best first
Rank Club xGD per match
#1 FK Crvena zvezda +1.80
#2 FK Vojvodina +1.28
#3 FK Železničar Pančevo +0.87
#4 FK Partizan +0.81
#5 FK Radnički 1923 +0.79
#6 FK IMT Beograd +0.72
#7 FK Radnik Surdulica +0.16
#8 FK Radnički Niš +0.06
#9 FK Novi Pazar -0.04
#10 FK Čukarički -0.16
#11 OFK Beograd -0.80
#12 FK Mladost Lučani -1.03
#13 FK Mačva Šabac -1.66
#14 FK Zemun -2.86
League avg
0.00
Total
-0.31 8 matches
Expected points Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
1.44 xPts per match
#8/14
Expected points (xPts per match) across SuperLiga (Serbia), best first
Rank Club xPts per match
#1 FK Crvena zvezda 2.36
#2 FK Vojvodina 1.93
#3 FK Radnički 1923 1.92
#4 FK Partizan 1.81
#5 FK Železničar Pančevo 1.78
#6 FK IMT Beograd 1.67
#7 FK Radnički Niš 1.51
#8 FK Novi Pazar 1.44
#9 FK Radnik Surdulica 1.39
#10 FK Čukarički 1.32
#11 OFK Beograd 0.86
#12 FK Mladost Lučani 0.69
#13 FK Mačva Šabac 0.68
#14 FK Zemun 0.17
League avg
1.41
Total
11.53 vs 13 actual pts

Early-season figures: after 8 matches, per-match rates can move quickly.

Expected goals here are summed over 8 of 10 matches — the rest were played with no xG figure published for them, so the margins compare two different lengths of season.

What the xG says

FK Novi Pazar's underlying numbers sit close to the SuperLiga (Serbia) average. They rank #9 for xG difference at -0.04 per match, built on elite chance quality rather than about average shot volume. Their 8 goals are 8.01 below 16.01 xG, while 9 points are 2.53 below 11.53 xPts — both over the 8 matches with xG. After only 8 matches, those gaps should still be read cautiously.

Actual vs expected

Measure Actual Expected Difference Reading
Goals vs xG
8 16.01 -8.01 scored 8.01 fewer than xG far outside normal variance
Goals conceded vs xGA
11 16.32 -5.32 conceded 5.32 fewer than xGA outside normal variance
Points vs xPts Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
9 11.53 -2.53 2.53 points below xPts within normal variance

Select a row to chart it across the season.

Goals minus xG, match by match

FK Novi Pazar are 8.01 goals below their xG after 8 matches.

Goals
8
xG
16.01
Gap
-8.01
Sat 18/07 Sat 01/08 Sat 08/08 Mon 17/08 Sun 23/08 Sat 29/08 Sat 12/09 Sat 19/09 -9 -7 -5 -3 -1 +1 -0.05 -1.50 -3.36 -4.21 -5.38 -7.01 -6.61 -8.01 -0.05 -1.45 -1.86 -0.85 -1.17 -1.63 +0.40 -1.40 Running gap goals − xG Each match goals − xG
FK Novi Pazar: Goals vs xG, the gap after every match with xG
Date Opponent Goals xG Match gap Running gap
Sat 18/07 FK Radnički 1923 1 1.05 -0.05 -0.05
Sat 01/08 OFK Beograd 1 2.45 -1.45 -1.50
Sat 08/08 FK Crvena zvezda 0 1.86 -1.86 -3.36
Mon 17/08 FK Vojvodina 2 2.85 -0.85 -4.21
Sun 23/08 FK Radnik Surdulica 0 1.17 -1.17 -5.38
Sat 29/08 FK Mačva Šabac 1 2.63 -1.63 -7.01
Sat 12/09 FK Čukarički 1 0.60 +0.40 -6.61
Sat 19/09 FK Zemun 2 3.40 -1.40 -8.01

Goals vs xG ranking → Expected points ranking →

FK Novi Pazar xG trend

Current form +0.20 npxGD per match

The last 6 matches with xG.

Out-created the opponent in 4 of 8 matches. The worst was against FK Vojvodina on Mon 17/08 (-3.36).

npxG · last 6
2.07
npxGA · last 6
1.86
-4 -3 -2 -1 0 +1 +2 +3 -0.83 Sat 18/07 -0.39 Sat 01/08 -0.81 Sat 08/08 -3.36 Mon 17/08 +0.55 Sun 23/08 +1.71 Sat 29/08 +0.34 Sat 12/09 +2.80 Sat 19/09 +0.00 season avg
FK Novi Pazar: non-penalty xG, xGA and their difference in each match, with the season's average so far
Date Opponent npxG npxGA npxGD Avg so far
Sat 18/07 FK Radnički 1923 1.05 1.88 -0.83 -0.83
Sat 01/08 OFK Beograd 2.45 2.84 -0.39 -0.61
Sat 08/08 FK Crvena zvezda 1.86 2.67 -0.81 -0.68
Mon 17/08 FK Vojvodina 2.85 6.21 -3.36 -1.35
Sun 23/08 FK Radnik Surdulica 1.17 0.62 +0.55 -0.97
Sat 29/08 FK Mačva Šabac 2.63 0.92 +1.71 -0.52
Sat 12/09 FK Čukarički 0.50 0.16 +0.34 -0.40
Sat 19/09 FK Zemun 3.40 0.60 +2.80 +0.00

Each bar is one match's non-penalty xG minus the non-penalty xG against; the line is that difference averaged over the season up to each match, and it finishes on the dashed season average — 1.99 npxG and 1.99 npxGA per match. Current form is the same difference over the last 6 matches with xG.

Form ranking →

Strength of schedule

Season so far
number 12 hardest of 14 in SuperLiga (Serbia)
−0.09 xG vs league average
Over 10 league matches
Last 5
number 14 hardest of 14 in SuperLiga (Serbia)
−0.38 xG vs league average
Over 5 league matches
Opponents behind the figures

Season so far

−0.09 xG vs league average · over 10 matches · number 12 hardest of 14

  1. FK Zemun Home −1.19
  2. FK Čukarički Away −0.12
  3. FK Železničar Pančevo Home +0.22
  4. FK Mačva Šabac Home −0.77
  5. FK Radnik Surdulica Away −0.03
  6. FK Vojvodina Home +0.47
  7. FK Crvena zvezda Away +1.02
  8. OFK Beograd Home −0.10
  9. FK Mladost Lučani Away −0.72
  10. FK Radnički 1923 Home +0.29

Last 5

−0.38 xG vs league average · over 5 matches · number 14 hardest of 14

  1. FK Zemun Home −1.19
  2. FK Čukarički Away −0.12
  3. FK Železničar Pančevo Home +0.22
  4. FK Mačva Šabac Home −0.77
  5. FK Radnik Surdulica Away −0.03

League schedule strength → How this is calculated →

FK Novi Pazar shots and chance quality

Average volume, high quality. FK Novi Pazar take 14.0 shots a match (league 14.2) at 0.14 npxG a shot (league 0.12), =7 in SuperLiga (Serbia) for volume and #3 for quality. 66% of their shots come from inside the box (league 59%).

Attack

Shot volume
14.0 shots per match
=7/14
Shot volume (shots per match) across SuperLiga (Serbia), best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 FK Partizan 20.0
#2 FK Crvena zvezda 19.3
#3 FK Železničar Pančevo 18.8
#4 FK Vojvodina 17.3
#5 FK Radnik Surdulica 16.3
#6 FK Radnički 1923 16.2
=7 FK IMT Beograd 14.0
=7 FK Novi Pazar 14.0
#9 FK Radnički Niš 13.7
#10 FK Čukarički 12.0
#11 OFK Beograd 11.3
#12 FK Mladost Lučani 9.0
#13 FK Mačva Šabac 8.6
#14 FK Zemun 8.3
League avg
14.2
Total
112 shots from 8 matches
Chance quality
0.14 npxG per shot
#3/14
Chance quality (npxG per shot) across SuperLiga (Serbia), best first
Rank Club npxG per shot
#1 FK Vojvodina 0.16
#2 FK Crvena zvezda 0.14
#3 FK Novi Pazar 0.14
#4 FK Radnički 1923 0.13
#5 FK IMT Beograd 0.13
#6 FK Čukarički 0.12
#7 FK Mladost Lučani 0.12
#8 FK Partizan 0.12
#9 OFK Beograd 0.11
#10 FK Železničar Pančevo 0.11
#11 FK Radnički Niš 0.11
#12 FK Radnik Surdulica 0.10
#13 FK Mačva Šabac 0.09
#14 FK Zemun 0.09
League avg
0.12
Total
15.91 npxG from 112 shots

Defence

Shots allowed
15.3 shots per match
#10/14
Shots allowed (shots per match) across SuperLiga (Serbia), best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 FK Crvena zvezda 8.9
#2 FK IMT Beograd 9.7
#3 FK Železničar Pančevo 9.8
#4 FK Vojvodina 11.6
#5 FK Partizan 11.9
#6 FK Radnički 1923 11.9
#7 FK Radnik Surdulica 12.9
#8 OFK Beograd 13.9
#9 FK Radnički Niš 13.9
#10 FK Novi Pazar 15.3
#11 FK Čukarički 15.7
#12 FK Mačva Šabac 19.1
#13 FK Mladost Lučani 19.4
#14 FK Zemun 24.4
League avg
14.2
Total
122 shots allowed from 8 matches
Chance quality allowed
0.13 npxGA per shot
#11/14
Chance quality allowed (npxGA per shot) across SuperLiga (Serbia), best first
Rank Club npxGA per shot
#1 FK Radnički Niš 0.10
#2 FK Čukarički 0.11
#3 FK Mladost Lučani 0.11
#4 FK Radnik Surdulica 0.11
#5 FK Crvena zvezda 0.11
#6 FK Radnički 1923 0.11
#7 FK IMT Beograd 0.12
#8 FK Mačva Šabac 0.13
#9 FK Železničar Pančevo 0.13
#10 FK Vojvodina 0.13
#11 FK Novi Pazar 0.13
#12 FK Partizan 0.13
#13 FK Zemun 0.15
#14 OFK Beograd 0.15
League avg
0.12
Total
15.90 npxGA from 122 shots

Shot profile

Shot location

66% inside the box

League avg 59%

From 74 of 112 shots over 8 matches

Early-season figure: after 8 matches, the share can move quickly.

Shots allowed, location

61% allowed inside the box

League avg 59%

From 75 of 122 shots allowed over 8 matches

Early-season figure: after 8 matches, the share can move quickly.

How the shot figures are made →

FK Novi Pazar home and away xG

FK Novi Pazar per-match figures at home and away
Measure Home Away
Matches 6 5 with xG 4 3 with xG
xG / match 2.48 1.21
xGA / match 2.49 1.29
xGD / match -0.01 -0.08
xPts / match Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works → 1.50 1.35

Every figure divides by that half's matches with xG. A half with fewer than 3 matches with xG is muted.

Every FK Novi Pazar match by xG

Window
Season Last 10 Last 5
Venue
All Home Away

This season

Matches
10 8 with xG
xG / match
2.00
xGA / match
2.04
xGD / match
-0.04
Points
13 of 30
  1. Sat 19/09 FK Zemun H Best underlying xG 3.40 xGA 0.60 xGD +2.80
  2. Sat 12/09 FK Čukarički A xG 0.60 xGA 0.58 xGD +0.02
  3. Fri 04/09 FK Železničar Pančevo H
  4. Sat 29/08 FK Mačva Šabac H xG 2.63 xGA 0.92 xGD +1.71
  5. Sun 23/08 FK Radnik Surdulica A xG 1.17 xGA 0.62 xGD +0.55
  6. Mon 17/08 FK Vojvodina H Against the chances xG 2.85 xGA 6.21 xGD -3.36
  7. Sat 08/08 FK Crvena zvezda A xG 1.86 xGA 2.67 xGD -0.81
  8. Sat 01/08 OFK Beograd H xG 2.45 xGA 2.84 xGD -0.39
  9. Sun 26/07 FK Mladost Lučani A
  10. Sat 18/07 FK Radnički 1923 H xG 1.05 xGA 1.88 xGD -0.83

Newest first. The dot is xG and the ring is xGA, on one scale from 0 to 6.21. Best and weakest underlying mark the highest and lowest xGD once 5 matches have xG. Against the chances marks a win with xGD of −1.00 or lower, or a loss with +1.00 or higher. P marks a side with at least 0.50 xG from penalties.

Every result, all competitions →

FK Novi Pazar in SuperLiga (Serbia)

Attack

Defence

Overall

About the data

xG data
Provided by TheStatsAPI, and stored as published.
Derived metrics
xGD, per-match rates, rankings and rolling averages are calculated from the match data.
Model metrics
xPts is produced by our probability model.

Learn how our xG analytics work →

How the model works →

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