FK Radnički Niš 3:1 OFK Beograd: xG & match report · SuperLiga (Serbia)

Sunday, 13/09/2026 at 16:00

Full time

Match report · SuperLiga (Serbia)

FK Radnički Niš Home 2.66 xG

OFK Beograd Away 1.02 xG

31 The scoreline reflected the chances

FK Radnički Niš were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 42%. They won 3–1. The biggest difference was FK Radnički Niš's attack: 2.66 xG against 1.44 projected (+1.22).

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

FK Radnički Niš: 42% What happened
Draw: 31%
OFK Beograd: 27%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

FK Radnički Niš 1.44 2.66 +1.22

OFK Beograd 1.15 1.02 -0.13

FK Radnički Niš produced 1.22 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

FK Radnički Niš OFK Beograd

Shots: 13; 8
On target: 7; 2
Inside the box: 10; 4
xG per shot: 0.20; 0.13

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

FK Radnički Niš

1.49 xG created 1.20 xGA

L 1.63 created, 1.16 conceded against FK Čukarički
W 2.77 created, 0.53 conceded against FK Zemun
D 0.54 created, 2.87 conceded against FK IMT Beograd
L 1.14 created, 0.78 conceded against FK Mačva Šabac
D 0.63 created, 0.76 conceded against FK Radnički 1923
L 2.20 created, 1.11 conceded against FK Mladost Lučani

OFK Beograd

1.30 xG created 2.00 xGA

L 1.78 created, 2.24 conceded against FK Vojvodina
L 0.29 created, 2.15 conceded against FK Vojvodina
D 1.02 created, 0.79 conceded against FK Radnik Surdulica
W 2.84 created, 2.45 conceded against FK Novi Pazar
L 0.57 created, 1.66 conceded against FK Čukarički
L 1.32 created, 2.71 conceded against FK Partizan

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

FK Radnički Niš: 1 won · 0 drawn · 1 lost

Pre-match model & market record

2 opportunities flagged1 won1 lost

Won
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on FK Radnički Niš against OFK Beograd before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Both teams to score	1.83	+5.8%	Won
Draw	3.30	+1.1%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
FK Radnički Niš	41.9%	43.0%	−1.2 pp	2.39
Draw	30.6%	28.0%	+2.6 pp	3.26
OFK Beograd	27.5%	28.9%	−1.4 pp	3.64

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
FK Radnički Niš to score	78.8%	75.0%	+3.8 pp	1.27
FK Radnički Niš not to score	21.2%	25.0%	−3.8 pp	4.71
OFK Beograd to score	71.0%	66.3%	+4.7 pp	1.41
OFK Beograd not to score	29.0%	33.7%	−4.7 pp	3.45
Both teams to score	57.7%	50.0%	+7.7 pp	1.73
Both teams not to score	42.3%	50.0%	−7.7 pp	2.37
FK Radnički Niš 2+ goals	43.2%	42.3%	+0.8 pp	2.32
FK Radnički Niš at most 1 goal	56.8%	57.7%	−0.8 pp	1.76
OFK Beograd 2+ goals	32.2%	31.3%	+0.9 pp	3.11
OFK Beograd at most 1 goal	67.8%	68.7%	−0.9 pp	1.47
Over 1.5 goals	77.1%	74.2%	+2.8 pp	1.30
Under 1.5 goals	22.9%	25.8%	−2.8 pp	4.36
Over 2.5 goals	48.8%	48.7%	+0.2 pp	2.05
Under 2.5 goals	51.2%	51.3%	−0.2 pp	1.95

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
FK Radnički Niš sample: 20 matches
OFK Beograd sample: 20 matches
Computed: 6 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 6 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.