FC Lausanne-Sport 2:3 FC Zürich: xG & match report · Swiss Super League

Saturday, 29/08/2026 at 18:00

Full time

Match report · Swiss Super League

FC Lausanne-Sport Home 1.09 xG · 10 shots

FC Zürich Away 1.71 xG · 11 shots

23 The scoreline reflected the chances

FC Lausanne-Sport were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 46%. FC Zürich won 3–2. The biggest difference was FC Zürich's attack: 1.71 xG against 1.01 projected (+0.70). FC Lausanne-Sport produced 1.09 xG against 1.47 projected (−0.38).

Goals

31' Enzo Molebe FC Lausanne-Sport · 0.14 xG chance 1–0
47' Bledian Krasniqi FC Zürich · 0.49 xG chance 1–1
58' Lindrit Kamberi FC Zürich · 0.22 xG chance 1–2
73' Omar Janneh FC Lausanne-Sport · 0.25 xG chance 2–2
81' Umeh Emmanuel FC Zürich · 0.28 xG chance 2–3

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

FC Lausanne-Sport: 46%
Draw: 31%
FC Zürich: 23% What happened

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

FC Lausanne-Sport 1.47 1.09 -0.38

FC Zürich 1.01 1.71 +0.70

FC Zürich produced 0.70 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

FC Lausanne-Sport FC Zürich

Shots: 10; 11
On target: 3; 4
Inside the box: 10; 7
xG per shot: 0.11; 0.16
Open play xG: 0.81; 1.31
Set-piece xG: 0.26; 0.40
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.06 for FC Lausanne-Sport.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

21 shots · 2.78 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

FC Lausanne-Sport
FC Zürich
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

FC Lausanne-Sport

1.13 xG created 0.95 xGA

L 0.50 created, 1.39 conceded against Servette FC
L 2.98 created, 0.52 conceded against Grasshopper Club Zürich
D 0.80 created, 0.74 conceded against Grasshopper Club Zürich
W 0.52 created, 0.98 conceded against Basel
D 1.54 created, 1.09 conceded against Young Boys
L 0.41 created, 0.98 conceded against FC Luzern

FC Zürich

1.13 xG created 1.91 xGA

L 1.76 created, 2.16 conceded against FC Luzern
L 0.18 created, 2.03 conceded against Servette FC
L 1.11 created, 1.63 conceded against FC St. Gallen 1879
W 1.48 created, 1.53 conceded against Servette FC
L 0.87 created, 2.46 conceded against FC Lugano
L 1.35 created, 1.64 conceded against Basel

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

FC Lausanne-Sport: 3 won · 0 drawn · 1 lost

Pre-match model & market record

8 opportunities flagged0 won8 lost

Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on FC Lausanne-Sport against FC Zürich before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Under 2.5 goals	2.30	+24.2%	Lost
Draw	3.90	+19.4%	Lost
FC Lausanne-Sport at most 1 goal	2.10	+16.6%	Lost
Under 1.5 goals	4.50	+12.5%	Lost
FC Lausanne-Sport not to score	5.50	+12.0%	Lost
FC Zürich at most 1 goal	1.44	+6.0%	Lost
Both teams not to score	2.25	+2.2%	Lost
FC Zürich not to score	3.00	+1.2%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
FC Lausanne-Sport	46.4%	50.6%	−4.2 pp	2.15
Draw	30.6%	24.0%	+6.6 pp	3.27
FC Zürich	23.0%	25.3%	−2.3 pp	4.35

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
FC Lausanne-Sport to score	79.6%	82.8%	−3.2 pp	1.26
FC Lausanne-Sport not to score	20.4%	17.2%	+3.2 pp	4.91
FC Zürich to score	66.3%	68.7%	−2.5 pp	1.51
FC Zürich not to score	33.7%	31.3%	+2.5 pp	2.96
Both teams to score	54.6%	58.9%	−4.3 pp	1.83
Both teams not to score	45.4%	41.1%	+4.3 pp	2.20
FC Lausanne-Sport 2+ goals	44.5%	55.7%	−11.2 pp	2.25
FC Lausanne-Sport at most 1 goal	55.5%	44.3%	+11.2 pp	1.80
FC Zürich 2+ goals	26.6%	35.5%	−8.9 pp	3.76
FC Zürich at most 1 goal	73.4%	64.5%	+8.9 pp	1.36
Over 1.5 goals	75.0%	79.2%	−4.2 pp	1.33
Under 1.5 goals	25.0%	20.8%	+4.2 pp	4.00
Over 2.5 goals	46.0%	59.0%	−13.0 pp	2.17
Under 2.5 goals	54.0%	41.0%	+13.0 pp	1.85

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
FC Lausanne-Sport sample: 20 matches
FC Zürich sample: 20 matches
Computed: 8 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 8 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.