FC Luzern 1:0 FC Lausanne-Sport: xG & match report · Swiss Super League

Saturday, 22/08/2026 at 18:00

Full time

Match report · Swiss Super League

FC Luzern Home 0.98 xG · 17 shots

FC Lausanne-Sport Away 0.41 xG · 6 shots

10 The scoreline reflected the chances

FC Luzern were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 44%. They won 1–0. The biggest difference was FC Lausanne-Sport's attack: 0.41 xG against 1.25 projected (−0.84). FC Luzern produced 0.98 xG against 1.61 projected (−0.63).

Goals

3' Matteo Di Giusto FC Luzern · 0.21 xG chance 1–0

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

FC Luzern: 44% What happened
Draw: 29%
FC Lausanne-Sport: 27%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

FC Luzern 1.61 0.98 -0.63

FC Lausanne-Sport 1.25 0.41 -0.84

FC Lausanne-Sport produced 0.84 xG less than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

FC Luzern FC Lausanne-Sport

Shots: 17; 6
On target: 7; 2
Inside the box: 14; 3
xG per shot: 0.08; 0.07
Open play xG: 1.01; 0.23
Set-piece xG: 0.34; 0.20
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.36 for FC Luzern and 0.43 for FC Lausanne-Sport.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

23 shots · 1.78 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

FC Luzern
FC Lausanne-Sport
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

FC Luzern

1.63 xG created 2.09 xGA

D 0.74 created, 2.26 conceded against Servette FC
W 2.16 created, 1.76 conceded against FC Zürich
W 2.33 created, 0.54 conceded against FC Winterthur
L 2.53 created, 1.92 conceded against FC Thun
L 0.51 created, 2.83 conceded against FC Sion
D 1.51 created, 3.24 conceded against FC St. Gallen 1879

FC Lausanne-Sport

1.39 xG created 1.01 xGA

L 1.97 created, 1.35 conceded against FC Winterthur
L 0.50 created, 1.39 conceded against Servette FC
L 2.98 created, 0.52 conceded against Grasshopper Club Zürich
D 0.80 created, 0.74 conceded against Grasshopper Club Zürich
W 0.52 created, 0.98 conceded against Basel
D 1.54 created, 1.09 conceded against Young Boys

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

FC Luzern: 3 won · 1 drawn · 0 lost

Pre-match model & market record

2 opportunities flagged1 won1 lost

Won
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on FC Luzern against FC Lausanne-Sport before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Under 2.5 goals	2.60	+14.0%	Won
Draw	3.75	+8.0%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
FC Luzern	44.1%	48.1%	−4.0 pp	2.27
Draw	28.8%	25.0%	+3.8 pp	3.47
FC Lausanne-Sport	27.1%	26.8%	+0.3 pp	3.69

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Both teams to score	63.0%	64.5%	−1.6 pp	1.59
Both teams not to score	37.0%	35.5%	+1.6 pp	2.70
Over 1.5 goals	82.0%	83.2%	−1.2 pp	1.22
Under 1.5 goals	18.0%	16.8%	+1.2 pp	5.55
Over 2.5 goals	56.2%	64.3%	−8.1 pp	1.78
Under 2.5 goals	43.8%	35.7%	+8.1 pp	2.28

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
FC Luzern sample: 20 matches
FC Lausanne-Sport sample: 20 matches
Computed: 9 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 1 day before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.