Friday, 04/09/2026 at 12:00
Full timeChornomorets Odesa 0:0 FC Livyi Bereh Kyiv
A draw was the model's likeliest result before kick-off at 34%. It finished 0–0. The biggest difference was FC Livyi Bereh Kyiv's attack: 0.34 xG against 1.12 projected (−0.78). Chornomorets Odesa produced 0.46 xG against 1.12 projected (−0.66).
The model against the result
- Chornomorets Odesa
- 33%
- Draw
- 34% What happened
- FC Livyi Bereh Kyiv
- 33%
Data coverage One of these teams has only 2 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.
Projected vs produced
FC Livyi Bereh Kyiv produced 0.78 xG less than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 16
- 11
- On target
- 0
- 2
- Inside the box
- 5
- 5
- xG per shot
- 0.03
- 0.03
Recent form
0.62 xG created 1.48 xGA
1.02 xG created 0.78 xGA
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Model details
· 2 warningsShow Hide
- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Chornomorets Odesa sample
- 2 matches
- FC Livyi Bereh Kyiv sample
- 4 matches
- Computed
- 1 hour before kick-off
Warnings
- Chornomorets Odesa has only 2 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.
- FC Livyi Bereh Kyiv has only 4 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.