FC Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih 2:2 Kolos Kovalivka: xG & match report · Ukrainian Premier League

Saturday, 05/09/2026 at 12:00

Full time

Match report · Ukrainian Premier League

FC Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih Home 0.83 xG

Kolos Kovalivka Away 2.47 xG

22 Kolos Kovalivka had the better chances, but it finished level

FC Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 39%. It finished 2–2. The biggest difference was Kolos Kovalivka's attack: 2.47 xG against 1.28 projected (+1.19). FC Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih produced 0.83 xG against 1.45 projected (−0.62).

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

FC Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih: 39%
Draw: 30% What happened
Kolos Kovalivka: 31%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

FC Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih 1.45 0.83 -0.62

Kolos Kovalivka 1.28 2.47 +1.19

Kolos Kovalivka produced 1.19 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

FC Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih Kolos Kovalivka

Shots: 13; 19
On target: 4; 6
Inside the box: 5; 12
xG per shot: 0.06; 0.13

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

FC Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih

1.80 xG created 1.68 xGA

D 2.67 created, 1.12 conceded against SC Poltava
W 1.24 created, 0.83 conceded against Karpaty Lviv
W 1.51 created, 2.24 conceded against Veres Rivne
L 1.20 created, 1.19 conceded against Shakhtar Donetsk
L 2.34 created, 3.67 conceded against Karpaty Lviv
L 1.84 created, 1.01 conceded against Chornomorets Odesa

Kolos Kovalivka

1.10 xG created 1.64 xGA

W 2.20 created, 0.62 conceded against Oleksandria
W 0.98 created, 1.06 conceded against Kudrivka
L 1.43 created, 1.74 conceded against Dynamo Kyiv
L 0.86 created, 2.29 conceded against Obolon Kyiv
L 0.78 created, 2.46 conceded against Zoria Luhansk
L 0.37 created, 1.64 conceded against Dynamo Kyiv

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

FC Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih: 0 won · 1 drawn · 1 lost

Pre-match model & market record

4 opportunities flagged3 won1 lost

Won
Lost
Won
Won

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on FC Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih against Kolos Kovalivka before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Both teams to score	1.85	+13.0%	Won
FC Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih to win	2.88	+12.7%	Lost
Over 2.5 goals	2.10	+11.2%	Won
Over 1.5 goals	1.30	+3.8%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
FC Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih	39.2%	30.6%	+8.6 pp	2.55
Draw	29.9%	29.4%	+0.6 pp	3.34
Kolos Kovalivka	30.9%	40.0%	−9.2 pp	3.24

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Both teams to score	61.1%	50.0%	+11.1 pp	1.64
Both teams not to score	38.9%	50.0%	−11.1 pp	2.57
Over 1.5 goals	79.9%	71.1%	+8.8 pp	1.25
Under 1.5 goals	20.1%	28.9%	−8.8 pp	4.97
Over 2.5 goals	52.9%	44.0%	+8.9 pp	1.89
Under 2.5 goals	47.1%	56.0%	−8.9 pp	2.13

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
FC Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih sample: 20 matches
Kolos Kovalivka sample: 20 matches
Computed: 21 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 21 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.