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Saturday, 12/09/2026 at 14:20

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Match preview · Ukrainian Premier League

FC Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih – Metalist 1925

FC Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih 12th in Ukrainian Premier League Home 1.05 projected goals by the model
Metalist 1925 5th in Ukrainian Premier League Away 1.82 projected goals by the model

Model updated 11 September, 10:58 Odds not yet available

What the model expects

expected goals
1.05 1.82
FC Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih Metalist 1925
FC Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih
19%
Draw
27%
Metalist 1925
55%
The odds each result is fair at by the model's chance of it, with no margin in it
FC Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih Draw Metalist 1925
Fair odds 5.34 3.75 1.83
Total goals
2.87
Over 2.5 goals
56%
Both teams to score
60%
Data coverage · full

Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Model vs market

Market odds are not available for this match yet.

The model's case

Why the model leans Metalist 1925

55% Metalist 1925 to win

Attack
5th vs 14th
Metalist 1925 attack v FC Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih defence
Defence
1st vs 7th
Metalist 1925 defence v FC Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih attack
Recent xG form
+0.90 vs -0.41
xGD per match, last 6
Projected goals
1.05 – 1.82
FC Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih v Metalist 1925
How the model arrived here →

Team comparison

Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.

Overview: FC Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih and Metalist 1925 compared, each figure with where it places in the competition.
Reading FC Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih Metalist 1925
xG / match 1.36 · 9th from 4 matches (better) 2.42 · 1st from 4 matches
xGA / match 2.32 · 14th from 4 matches (better) 0.79 · 2nd from 4 matches
xGD / match -0.96 · 13th from 4 matches (better) +1.63 · 1st from 4 matches
xPts / match 0.83 · 13th from 4 matches (better) 2.23 · 2nd from 4 matches
Last 6 xGD / match -0.41 (better) +0.90
Value calculator

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How value is calculated

Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.

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Model details

Show
Fit window
the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
FC Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih sample
20 matches
Metalist 1925 sample
20 matches
Home xG sample · FC Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih
2 matches
Away xG sample · Metalist 1925
1 match
Computed
Friday, 11/09/2026 at 10:58

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.