Saturday, 19/09/2026 at 12:00
Full timeMetalist 1925 2:0 Bukovyna Chernivtsi
Metalist 1925 were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 55%. They won 2–0. The biggest difference was Metalist 1925's attack: 3.04 xG against 1.95 projected (+1.09). Bukovyna Chernivtsi produced 0.82 xG against 1.16 projected (−0.34).
The model against the result
- Metalist 1925
- 55% What happened
- Draw
- 25%
- Bukovyna Chernivtsi
- 19%
Data coverage One of these teams has only 6 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.
Projected vs produced
Metalist 1925 produced 1.09 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 18
- 7
- On target
- 3
- 0
- Inside the box
- 13
- 4
- xG per shot
- 0.17
- 0.12
Recent form
1.72 xG created 0.83 xGA
- D 1.27 created, 0.66 conceded against Zoria Luhansk
- D 1.28 created, 1.53 conceded against Karpaty Lviv
- D 1.17 created, 0.42 conceded against FC Epicentr Dunaivtsi
- W 3.80 created, 0.20 conceded against Veres Rivne
- L 1.32 created, 1.26 conceded against Polissya Zhytomyr
- L 1.51 created, 0.88 conceded against Shakhtar Donetsk
2.04 xG created 1.83 xGA
- D 0.22 created, 3.49 conceded against LNZ Cherkasy
- D 3.27 created, 0.04 conceded against Obolon Kyiv
- L 2.83 created, 1.96 conceded against Karpaty Lviv
- W 1.42 created, 2.62 conceded against Dynamo Kyiv
- D 2.18 created, 2.19 conceded against FC Epicentr Dunaivtsi
- D 2.31 created, 0.70 conceded against Zoria Luhansk
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Metalist 1925 sample
- 20 matches
- Bukovyna Chernivtsi sample
- 6 matches
- Computed
- 3 hours before kick-off
Warnings
- Bukovyna Chernivtsi has only 6 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.