Saturday, 31/10/2026 at 15:00
27d 10h to kick-offObolon Kyiv – Shakhtar Donetsk
Model updated 4 October, 03:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Obolon Kyiv
- 14%
- Draw
- 29%
- Shakhtar Donetsk
- 57%
| Obolon Kyiv | Draw | Shakhtar Donetsk | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 7.09 | 3.47 | 1.75 |
- Total goals
- 2.30
- Over 2.5 goals
- 41%
- Both teams to score
- 46%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Shakhtar Donetsk
57% Shakhtar Donetsk to win
- Attack
- 4th vs 9th
- Shakhtar Donetsk attack v Obolon Kyiv defence
- Defence
- 2nd vs 16th
- Shakhtar Donetsk defence v Obolon Kyiv attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.96 vs -1.34
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 0.73 – 1.57
- Obolon Kyiv v Shakhtar Donetsk
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Obolon Kyiv | Shakhtar Donetsk |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 0.60 · 15th from 4 matches | (better) 1.88 · 5th |
| xGA / match | 2.79 · 16th from 4 matches | (better) 0.92 · 3rd |
| xGD / match | -2.19 · 16th from 4 matches | (better) +0.96 · 3rd |
| xPts / match | 0.48 · 16th from 4 matches | (better) 2.01 · 4th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -1.34 | (better) +0.96 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 41% of the model's distribution.
- Shakhtar Donetsk clean sheet
- 46%
- Shakhtar Donetsk 2+ goals
- 48%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 59%
- Both teams to score: no
- 54%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 14.8%
- 0:1
- 13.7%
- 0:2
- 12.9%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
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Model details
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- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Obolon Kyiv sample
- 20 matches
- Shakhtar Donetsk sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Obolon Kyiv
- 0 matches
- Away xG sample · Shakhtar Donetsk
- 3 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 03:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.