Saturday, 12/09/2026 at 12:00
Full timeLNZ Cherkasy 3:1 Obolon Kyiv
LNZ Cherkasy were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 53%. They won 3–1. The biggest difference was LNZ Cherkasy's attack: 4.19 xG against 1.29 projected (+2.90).
The model against the result
- LNZ Cherkasy
- 53% What happened
- Draw
- 33%
- Obolon Kyiv
- 14%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
LNZ Cherkasy produced 2.90 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 19
- 12
- On target
- 8
- 6
- Inside the box
- 13
- 4
- xG per shot
- 0.22
- 0.03
Recent form
1.64 xG created 0.67 xGA
- W 1.93 created, 0.23 conceded against SC Poltava
- L 1.14 created, 0.22 conceded against Kudrivka
- W 1.17 created, 0.46 conceded against Obolon Kyiv
- D 3.49 created, 0.22 conceded against Bukovyna Chernivtsi
- L 1.60 created, 1.16 conceded against Karpaty Lviv
- D 0.49 created, 1.76 conceded against Dynamo Kyiv
0.92 xG created 1.59 xGA
- L 0.78 created, 0.54 conceded against Shakhtar Donetsk
- W 2.29 created, 0.86 conceded against Kolos Kovalivka
- L 0.46 created, 1.17 conceded against LNZ Cherkasy
- L 0.46 created, 2.67 conceded against FC Epicentr Dunaivtsi
- D 0.04 created, 3.27 conceded against Bukovyna Chernivtsi
- D 1.48 created, 1.03 conceded against Kudrivka
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- LNZ Cherkasy sample
- 20 matches
- Obolon Kyiv sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 1 day before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.