Sunday, 20/09/2026 at 17:00
Full timeShakhtar Donetsk 3:0 LNZ Cherkasy
Shakhtar Donetsk were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 37%. They won 3–0. The biggest difference was Shakhtar Donetsk's attack: 2.74 xG against 1.08 projected (+1.66).
The model against the result
- Shakhtar Donetsk
- 37% What happened
- Draw
- 36%
- LNZ Cherkasy
- 28%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
Shakhtar Donetsk produced 1.66 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 18
- 6
- On target
- 8
- 5
- Inside the box
- 9
- 4
- xG per shot
- 0.15
- 0.12
Recent form
1.62 xG created 1.00 xGA
- W 1.19 created, 1.20 conceded against FC Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih
- W 2.80 created, 0.29 conceded against Kudrivka
- W 1.39 created, 0.47 conceded against FC Epicentr Dunaivtsi
- W 0.88 created, 1.51 conceded against Metalist 1925
- W 1.58 created, 2.05 conceded against Karpaty Lviv
- W 1.90 created, 0.46 conceded against Chornomorets Odesa
2.01 xG created 0.71 xGA
- L 1.14 created, 0.22 conceded against Kudrivka
- W 1.17 created, 0.46 conceded against Obolon Kyiv
- D 3.49 created, 0.22 conceded against Bukovyna Chernivtsi
- L 1.60 created, 1.16 conceded against Karpaty Lviv
- D 0.49 created, 1.76 conceded against Dynamo Kyiv
- W 4.19 created, 0.42 conceded against Obolon Kyiv
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Shakhtar Donetsk sample
- 20 matches
- LNZ Cherkasy sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 1 day before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.