Friday, 18/09/2026 at 14:30
Full timePolissya Zhytomyr 1:0 FC Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih
Polissya Zhytomyr were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 64%. They won 1–0. The biggest difference was FC Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih's attack: 0.44 xG against 1.12 projected (−0.68).
The model against the result
- Polissya Zhytomyr
- 64% What happened
- Draw
- 21%
- FC Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih
- 14%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
FC Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih produced 0.68 xG less than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 19
- 10
- On target
- 5
- 2
- Inside the box
- 7
- 3
- xG per shot
- 0.11
- 0.04
Recent form
2.11 xG created 0.78 xGA
- D 1.64 created, 1.01 conceded against Zoria Luhansk
- W 1.12 created, 0.22 conceded against Chornomorets Odesa
- W 1.26 created, 1.32 conceded against Metalist 1925
- L 1.87 created, 0.83 conceded against Zoria Luhansk
- W 5.21 created, 1.06 conceded against Kudrivka
- W 1.55 created, 0.23 conceded against FC Livyi Bereh Kyiv
1.49 xG created 1.90 xGA
- W 1.24 created, 0.83 conceded against Karpaty Lviv
- W 1.51 created, 2.24 conceded against Veres Rivne
- L 1.20 created, 1.19 conceded against Shakhtar Donetsk
- L 2.34 created, 3.67 conceded against Karpaty Lviv
- L 1.84 created, 1.01 conceded against Chornomorets Odesa
- D 0.83 created, 2.47 conceded against Kolos Kovalivka
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Polissya Zhytomyr sample
- 20 matches
- FC Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 5 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.