Saturday, 24/10/2026 at 15:00
20d 13h to kick-offPolissya Zhytomyr – Obolon Kyiv
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Polissya Zhytomyr
- 65%
- Draw
- 24%
- Obolon Kyiv
- 11%
| Polissya Zhytomyr | Draw | Obolon Kyiv | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 1.55 | 4.13 | 8.98 |
- Total goals
- 2.65
- Over 2.5 goals
- 51%
- Both teams to score
- 50%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Polissya Zhytomyr
65% Polissya Zhytomyr to win
- Attack
- 1st vs 9th
- Polissya Zhytomyr attack v Obolon Kyiv defence
- Defence
- 5th vs 16th
- Polissya Zhytomyr defence v Obolon Kyiv attack
- Recent xG form
- +1.51 vs -1.34
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.91 – 0.75
- Polissya Zhytomyr v Obolon Kyiv
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Polissya Zhytomyr | Obolon Kyiv |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 2.19 · 2nd | 0.60 · 15th from 4 matches |
| xGA / match | (better) 0.68 · 1st | 2.79 · 16th from 4 matches |
| xGD / match | (better) +1.51 · 2nd | -2.19 · 16th from 4 matches |
| xPts / match | (better) 2.29 · 1st | 0.48 · 16th from 4 matches |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +1.51 | -1.34 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 37% of the model's distribution.
- Polissya Zhytomyr clean sheet
- 44%
- Polissya Zhytomyr 2+ goals
- 59%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 49%
- Both teams to score: no
- 50%
Most likely scorelines
- 2:0
- 13.0%
- 1:1
- 12.6%
- 2:1
- 11.5%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
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Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Polissya Zhytomyr sample
- 20 matches
- Obolon Kyiv sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Polissya Zhytomyr
- 5 matches
- Away xG sample · Obolon Kyiv
- 4 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.