FF Jaro 0:1 AC Oulu: xG & match report · Veikkausliiga

Saturday, 22/08/2026 at 16:00

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Match report · Veikkausliiga

FF Jaro Home 0.93 xG

AC Oulu Away 0.68 xG

01 The result went against the chances

FF Jaro were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 38%. AC Oulu won 1–0. The biggest difference was AC Oulu's attack: 0.68 xG against 1.29 projected (−0.61). FF Jaro produced 0.93 xG against 1.42 projected (−0.49).

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

FF Jaro: 38%
Draw: 30%
AC Oulu: 32% What happened

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

FF Jaro 1.42 0.93 -0.49

AC Oulu 1.29 0.68 -0.61

AC Oulu produced 0.61 xG less than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

FF Jaro AC Oulu

Shots: 15; 8
On target: 6; 4
Inside the box: 5; 5
xG per shot: 0.06; 0.09

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

FF Jaro

1.28 xG created 2.14 xGA

W 1.12 created, 4.03 conceded against Ilves
D 0.65 created, 1.62 conceded against Inter Turku
W 1.61 created, 1.42 conceded against SJK
L 0.42 created, 1.89 conceded against FC Lahti
L 2.97 created, 1.98 conceded against VPS
L 0.91 created, 1.87 conceded against HJK

AC Oulu

1.32 xG created 1.58 xGA

D 1.75 created, 0.79 conceded against FC Lahti
L 0.63 created, 1.90 conceded against TPS
L 1.19 created, 1.33 conceded against IF Gnistan
D 2.72 created, 2.55 conceded against IFK Mariehamn
W 1.41 created, 1.27 conceded against Ilves
L 0.22 created, 1.66 conceded against HJK

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

FF Jaro: 2 won · 0 drawn · 2 lost

Pre-match model & market record

2 opportunities flagged0 won2 lost

Lost
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on FF Jaro against AC Oulu before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
FF Jaro to win	2.88	+9.8%	Lost
Draw	3.50	+5.6%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
FF Jaro	38.2%	32.0%	+6.2 pp	2.62
Draw	30.2%	26.3%	+3.9 pp	3.31
AC Oulu	31.6%	41.8%	−10.1 pp	3.16

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Both teams to score	61.1%	57.7%	+3.4 pp	1.64
Both teams not to score	38.9%	42.3%	−3.4 pp	2.57
Over 1.5 goals	79.7%	76.9%	+2.8 pp	1.25
Under 1.5 goals	20.3%	23.1%	−2.8 pp	4.93
Over 2.5 goals	52.6%	55.7%	−3.2 pp	1.90
Under 2.5 goals	47.4%	44.3%	+3.2 pp	2.11

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
FF Jaro sample: 20 matches
AC Oulu sample: 20 matches
Computed: 7 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 1 day before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.