HJK 2:3 IF Gnistan: xG & match report · Veikkausliiga

Sunday, 23/08/2026 at 14:00

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Match report · Veikkausliiga

HJK Home 1.43 xG

IF Gnistan Away 1.40 xG

23 The chances were evenly matched

HJK were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 44%. IF Gnistan won 3–2. The biggest difference was HJK's attack: 1.43 xG against 1.76 projected (−0.33).

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

HJK: 44%
Draw: 27%
IF Gnistan: 29% What happened

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

HJK 1.76 1.43 -0.33

IF Gnistan 1.42 1.40 -0.02

HJK produced 0.33 xG less than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

HJK IF Gnistan

Shots: 12; 13
On target: 5; 6
Inside the box: 10; 6
xG per shot: 0.12; 0.11

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

HJK

1.81 xG created 0.83 xGA

L 0.85 created, 0.57 conceded against FC Lahti
W 2.21 created, 0.64 conceded against VPS
W 2.36 created, 1.25 conceded against TPS
L 1.92 created, 1.41 conceded against SJK
W 1.66 created, 0.22 conceded against AC Oulu
W 1.87 created, 0.91 conceded against FF Jaro

IF Gnistan

1.98 xG created 1.96 xGA

L 0.96 created, 2.46 conceded against FC Lahti
W 4.54 created, 0.60 conceded against IFK Mariehamn
W 1.33 created, 1.19 conceded against AC Oulu
W 1.78 created, 3.74 conceded against Inter Turku
L 2.27 created, 1.17 conceded against KuPS
D 1.02 created, 2.63 conceded against SJK

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

HJK: 2 won · 1 drawn · 2 lost

Pre-match model & market record

3 opportunities flagged2 won1 lost

Won
Lost
Won

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on HJK against IF Gnistan before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
IF Gnistan to win	4.33	+24.7%	Won
Draw	3.90	+5.8%	Lost
Both teams to score	1.53	+4.8%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
HJK	44.1%	55.4%	−11.4 pp	2.27
Draw	27.1%	23.5%	+3.7 pp	3.69
IF Gnistan	28.8%	21.1%	+7.7 pp	3.47

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Both teams to score	68.4%	60.8%	+7.6 pp	1.46
Both teams not to score	31.6%	39.2%	−7.6 pp	3.16
Over 1.5 goals	86.3%	82.8%	+3.5 pp	1.16
Under 1.5 goals	13.7%	17.2%	−3.5 pp	7.32
Over 2.5 goals	63.6%	62.5%	+1.1 pp	1.57
Under 2.5 goals	36.4%	37.5%	−1.1 pp	2.75

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
HJK sample: 20 matches
IF Gnistan sample: 20 matches
Computed: 6 minutes before kick-off
Prices taken: 2 days before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.