Ilves 0:1 VPS: xG & match report · Veikkausliiga

Saturday, 22/08/2026 at 16:00

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Match report · Veikkausliiga

Ilves Home 0.66 xG

VPS Away 1.18 xG

01 The scoreline reflected the chances

Ilves were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 38%. VPS won 1–0. The biggest difference was Ilves's attack: 0.66 xG against 1.65 projected (−0.99). VPS produced 1.18 xG against 1.58 projected (−0.40).

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Ilves: 38%
Draw: 27%
VPS: 35% What happened

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Ilves 1.65 0.66 -0.99

VPS 1.58 1.18 -0.40

Ilves produced 0.99 xG less than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Ilves VPS

Shots: 10; 10
On target: 2; 5
Inside the box: 4; 5
xG per shot: 0.07; 0.12

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Ilves

2.49 xG created 1.57 xGA

D 2.63 created, 3.02 conceded against SJK
L 4.03 created, 1.12 conceded against FF Jaro
W 3.33 created, 0.98 conceded against TPS
W 1.61 created, 1.38 conceded against FC Lahti
L 1.27 created, 1.41 conceded against AC Oulu
W 2.04 created, 1.53 conceded against IFK Mariehamn

VPS

1.21 xG created 1.96 xGA

W 1.60 created, 1.01 conceded against SJK
L 0.64 created, 2.21 conceded against HJK
L 1.08 created, 2.42 conceded against KuPS
L 0.99 created, 0.87 conceded against Inter Turku
W 1.98 created, 2.97 conceded against FF Jaro
L 0.97 created, 2.26 conceded against TPS

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Ilves: 1 won · 0 drawn · 2 lost

Pre-match model & market record

4 opportunities flagged2 won2 lost

Lost
Lost
Won
Won

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Ilves against VPS before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
VPS 2+ goals	2.20	+6.4%	Lost
Both teams to score	1.50	+4.2%	Lost
VPS to score	1.25	+2.3%	Won
VPS to win	2.90	+1.1%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Ilves	37.9%	41.6%	−3.7 pp	2.64
Draw	27.3%	26.9%	+0.4 pp	3.67
VPS	34.9%	31.5%	+3.3 pp	2.87

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Ilves to score	83.2%	79.2%	+4.0 pp	1.20
Ilves not to score	16.8%	20.8%	−4.0 pp	5.94
VPS to score	81.8%	75.0%	+6.8 pp	1.22
VPS not to score	18.2%	25.0%	−6.8 pp	5.51
Both teams to score	69.5%	62.5%	+7.0 pp	1.44
Both teams not to score	30.5%	37.5%	−7.0 pp	3.28
Ilves 2+ goals	50.6%	50.0%	+0.6 pp	1.98
Ilves at most 1 goal	49.4%	50.0%	−0.6 pp	2.03
VPS 2+ goals	48.3%	42.3%	+6.0 pp	2.07
VPS at most 1 goal	51.7%	57.7%	−6.0 pp	1.94
Over 1.5 goals	86.8%	81.4%	+5.4 pp	1.15
Under 1.5 goals	13.2%	18.6%	−5.4 pp	7.59
Over 2.5 goals	64.6%	60.8%	+3.8 pp	1.55
Under 2.5 goals	35.4%	39.2%	−3.8 pp	2.82

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Ilves sample: 20 matches
VPS sample: 20 matches
Computed: 7 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 1 day before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.