KuPS 2:4 IFK Mariehamn: xG & match report · Veikkausliiga

Sunday, 23/08/2026 at 14:00

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Match report · Veikkausliiga

KuPS Home 1.97 xG

IFK Mariehamn Away 1.47 xG

24 The result went against the chances

KuPS were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 75%. IFK Mariehamn won 4–2. The biggest difference was KuPS's attack: 1.97 xG against 2.77 projected (−0.80). IFK Mariehamn produced 1.47 xG against 0.99 projected (+0.48).

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

KuPS: 75%
Draw: 16%
IFK Mariehamn: 8% What happened

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

KuPS 2.77 1.97 -0.80

IFK Mariehamn 0.99 1.47 +0.48

KuPS produced 0.80 xG less than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

KuPS IFK Mariehamn

Shots: 18; 9
On target: 8; 5
Inside the box: 11; 4
xG per shot: 0.11; 0.16

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

KuPS

2.45 xG created 1.37 xGA

W 4.92 created, 1.32 conceded against HJK
W 3.31 created, 0.80 conceded against SJK
W 2.42 created, 1.08 conceded against VPS
W 1.17 created, 2.27 conceded against IF Gnistan
D 1.69 created, 2.01 conceded against TPS
W 1.17 created, 0.71 conceded against FC Lahti

IFK Mariehamn

1.58 xG created 2.54 xGA

L 0.60 created, 4.54 conceded against IF Gnistan
L 0.41 created, 3.36 conceded against FC Lahti
D 2.55 created, 2.72 conceded against AC Oulu
L 2.08 created, 1.73 conceded against TPS
L 1.53 created, 2.04 conceded against Ilves
W 2.28 created, 0.85 conceded against SJK

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

KuPS: 1 won · 1 drawn · 1 lost

Pre-match model & market record

3 opportunities flagged3 won0 lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on KuPS against IFK Mariehamn before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Both teams to score	1.80	+13.6%	Won
Over 2.5 goals	1.40	+4.7%	Won
Over 1.5 goals	1.11	+1.8%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
KuPS	75.5%	75.1%	+0.4 pp	1.32
Draw	16.1%	15.3%	+0.8 pp	6.21
IFK Mariehamn	8.4%	9.7%	−1.3 pp	11.90

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Both teams to score	63.1%	52.0%	+11.1 pp	1.58
Both teams not to score	36.9%	48.0%	−11.1 pp	2.71
Over 1.5 goals	91.6%	85.4%	+6.2 pp	1.09
Under 1.5 goals	8.4%	14.6%	−6.2 pp	11.92
Over 2.5 goals	74.8%	67.3%	+7.6 pp	1.34
Under 2.5 goals	25.2%	32.7%	−7.6 pp	3.97

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
KuPS sample: 20 matches
IFK Mariehamn sample: 20 matches
Computed: 6 minutes before kick-off
Prices taken: 2 days before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.