VPS 0:4 HJK: xG & match report · Veikkausliiga

Monday, 02/11/2026 at 17:00

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Match report · Veikkausliiga

VPS Home 0.45 xG

HJK Away 2.69 xG

04 The scoreline reflected the chances

HJK were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 46%. They won 4–0. The biggest difference was HJK's attack: 2.69 xG against 1.72 projected (+0.97). VPS produced 0.45 xG against 1.30 projected (−0.85).

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

VPS: 26%
Draw: 28%
HJK: 46% What happened

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

VPS 1.30 0.45 -0.85

HJK 1.72 2.69 +0.97

HJK produced 0.97 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

VPS HJK

Shots: 7; 18
On target: 2; 4
Inside the box: 5; 14
xG per shot: 0.06; 0.15

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

VPS

1.11 xG created 1.58 xGA

L 1.05 created, 0.65 conceded against KuPS
L 0.93 created, 3.66 conceded against HJK
W 1.44 created, 0.69 conceded against IF Gnistan
L 0.61 created, 2.41 conceded against KuPS
L 0.79 created, 0.72 conceded against Inter Turku
D 1.85 created, 1.36 conceded against AC Oulu

HJK

3.07 xG created 1.46 xGA

D 2.36 created, 1.54 conceded against IF Gnistan
W 3.66 created, 0.93 conceded against VPS
W 3.23 created, 1.58 conceded against AC Oulu
W 4.52 created, 0.88 conceded against IF Gnistan
D 1.71 created, 2.78 conceded against KuPS
W 2.94 created, 1.07 conceded against Inter Turku

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

VPS: 0 won · 1 drawn · 4 lost

Pre-match model & market record

9 qualified edges flagged0 won9 lost

Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on VPS against HJK before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
VPS to win	8.00	+111.3%	Lost
HJK not to score	10.00	+54.6%	Lost
VPS 2+ goals	4.00	+52.6%	Lost
HJK at most 1 goal	3.25	+52.5%	Lost
Draw	4.75	+31.5%	Lost
VPS to score	1.57	+18.5%	Lost
Under 2.5 goals	2.88	+15.2%	Lost
Both teams to score	1.67	+8.9%	Lost
Under 1.5 goals	6.50	+2.4%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
VPS	26.4%	11.3%	+15.1 pp	3.79
Draw	27.7%	19.1%	+8.6 pp	3.61
HJK	45.9%	69.6%	−23.7 pp	2.18

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
VPS to score	75.5%	58.9%	+16.6 pp	1.33
VPS not to score	24.5%	41.1%	−16.6 pp	4.07
HJK to score	84.5%	90.4%	−5.8 pp	1.18
HJK not to score	15.5%	9.6%	+5.8 pp	6.47
Both teams to score	65.3%	55.7%	+9.6 pp	1.53
Both teams not to score	34.7%	44.3%	−9.6 pp	2.88
VPS 2+ goals	38.1%	23.4%	+14.7 pp	2.62
VPS at most 1 goal	61.9%	76.6%	−14.7 pp	1.62
HJK 2+ goals	53.1%	70.9%	−17.8 pp	1.88
HJK at most 1 goal	46.9%	29.1%	+17.8 pp	2.13
Over 1.5 goals	84.2%	85.4%	−1.2 pp	1.19
Under 1.5 goals	15.8%	14.6%	+1.2 pp	6.35
Over 2.5 goals	59.9%	67.3%	−7.3 pp	1.67
Under 2.5 goals	40.1%	32.7%	+7.3 pp	2.50

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
VPS sample: 20 matches
HJK sample: 20 matches
Computed: 1 hour before kick-off
Prices taken: 4 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.