Saturday, 07/11/2026 at 17:30
32d 16h to kick-offDegerfors IF – GAIS
Model updated 6 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Degerfors IF
- 29%
- Draw
- 28%
- GAIS
- 43%
| Degerfors IF | Draw | GAIS | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 3.43 | 3.57 | 2.34 |
- Total goals
- 3.03
- Over 2.5 goals
- 60%
- Both teams to score
- 66%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans GAIS
43% GAIS to win
- Attack
- 6th vs 10th
- GAIS attack v Degerfors IF defence
- Defence
- 4th vs 15th
- GAIS defence v Degerfors IF attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.58 vs -0.06
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.37 – 1.66
- Degerfors IF v GAIS
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Degerfors IF | GAIS |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.26 · 15th | (better) 1.75 · 7th |
| xGA / match | 1.76 · 10th | (better) 1.34 · 4th |
| xGD / match | -0.51 · 13th | (better) +0.41 · 6th |
| xPts / match | 1.09 · 12th | (better) 1.61 · 6th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -0.06 | (better) +0.58 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 32% of the model's distribution.
- GAIS clean sheet
- 23%
- GAIS 2+ goals
- 51%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 40%
- Both teams to score: no
- 34%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 13.4%
- 1:2
- 10.5%
- 2:1
- 8.5%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Degerfors IF sample
- 20 matches
- GAIS sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Degerfors IF
- 10 matches
- Away xG sample · GAIS
- 8 matches
- Computed
- Tuesday, 06/10/2026 at 00:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.