Thursday, 29/10/2026 at 18:30
25d 18h to kick-offHammarby IF – IK Sirius
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Hammarby IF
- 65%
- Draw
- 20%
- IK Sirius
- 15%
| Hammarby IF | Draw | IK Sirius | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 1.53 | 5.00 | 6.76 |
- Total goals
- 3.80
- Over 2.5 goals
- 75%
- Both teams to score
- 71%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Hammarby IF
65% Hammarby IF to win
- Attack
- 1st vs 7th
- Hammarby IF attack v IK Sirius defence
- Defence
- 1st vs 5th
- Hammarby IF defence v IK Sirius attack
- Recent xG form
- +2.10 vs -0.03
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 2.53 – 1.27
- Hammarby IF v IK Sirius
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Hammarby IF | IK Sirius |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 2.66 · 1st | 2.13 · 3rd |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.11 · 1st | 1.34 · 3rd |
| xGD / match | (better) +1.54 · 1st | +0.79 · 3rd |
| xPts / match | (better) 2.24 · 1st | 1.84 · 3rd |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +2.10 | -0.03 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 27% of the model's distribution.
- Hammarby IF clean sheet
- 25%
- Hammarby IF 2+ goals
- 74%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 25%
- Both teams to score: no
- 29%
Most likely scorelines
- 2:1
- 10.2%
- 3:1
- 8.9%
- 1:1
- 8.2%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Hammarby IF sample
- 20 matches
- IK Sirius sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Hammarby IF
- 9 matches
- Away xG sample · IK Sirius
- 9 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.