Malmö FF 0:0 AIK: xG & match report · Allsvenskan

Monday, 07/09/2026 at 19:00

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Match report · Allsvenskan

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AIK Away

Malmö FF were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 59%. It finished 0–0.

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Malmö FF: 59%
Draw: 22% What happened
AIK: 19%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Malmö FF

1.76 xG created 1.28 xGA

D 1.55 created, 1.23 conceded against Kalmar FF
L 1.28 created, 0.92 conceded against IF Elfsborg
W 3.22 created, 1.73 conceded against IF Brommapojkarna
L 2.53 created, 0.70 conceded against Degerfors IF
W 0.22 created, 1.35 conceded against GAIS
W 1.77 created, 1.72 conceded against IK Sirius

AIK

1.49 xG created 2.58 xGA

W 1.92 created, 1.24 conceded against GAIS
D 0.29 created, 2.96 conceded against BK Häcken
L 1.35 created, 2.36 conceded against Örgryte IS
W 1.96 created, 2.39 conceded against Örgryte IS
W 1.49 created, 2.26 conceded against Djurgårdens IF
W 1.91 created, 4.26 conceded against Hammarby IF

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Malmö FF: 1 won · 2 drawn · 0 lost

Pre-match model & market record

4 opportunities flagged0 won4 lost

Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Malmö FF against AIK before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Over 2.5 goals	1.53	+11.9%	Lost
Both teams to score	1.53	+9.6%	Lost
Over 1.5 goals	1.14	+4.0%	Lost
Malmö FF to win	1.73	+1.8%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Malmö FF	58.9%	54.6%	+4.3 pp	1.70
Draw	22.3%	23.0%	−0.7 pp	4.49
AIK	18.8%	22.4%	−3.6 pp	5.32

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Both teams to score	71.5%	60.8%	+10.7 pp	1.40
Both teams not to score	28.5%	39.2%	−10.7 pp	3.50
Over 1.5 goals	91.0%	82.8%	+8.2 pp	1.10
Under 1.5 goals	9.0%	17.2%	−8.2 pp	11.06
Over 2.5 goals	73.0%	61.0%	+11.9 pp	1.37
Under 2.5 goals	27.0%	39.0%	−11.9 pp	3.70

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

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Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Malmö FF sample: 20 matches
AIK sample: 20 matches
Computed: 8 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 8 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.