Malmö FF

Monday, 12/10/2026 at 19:00

8d 12h to kick-off

Match preview · Allsvenskan

Malmö FF 7th in Allsvenskan Home 2.05 projected goals

Kalmar FF 13th in Allsvenskan Away 1.34 projected goals

Model updated 4 October, 03:30 Best odds updated 10 October, 12:00

What the model expects

expected goals

2.05 1.34

Malmö FF Kalmar FF

Malmö FF: 53%
Draw: 25%
Kalmar FF: 22%

The odds each result is fair at by the model's chance of it, with no margin in it
	Malmö FF	Draw	Kalmar FF
Fair odds	1.88	4.06	4.53

Total goals: 3.39
Over 2.5 goals: 68%
Both teams to score: 69%

Data coverage · partial

Both teams have at least 10 matches in the model window, but at least one has fewer than the full 20.

Model vs market

The model sees an edge in 7 outcomes.

Malmö FF

Model

53.3%

Market, margin removed

53.8%

Probability gap

−0.5 pp

Edge

−9.4%

Fair odds

1.88

Market odds

1.70 Bet365

Price at which a 5% edge begins

1.97

Bookmaker margin

9.3%
Draw

Model

24.6%

Market, margin removed

24.4%

Probability gap

+0.2 pp

Edge

−7.7%

Fair odds

4.06

Market odds

3.75 Bet365

Price at which a 5% edge begins

4.27

Bookmaker margin

9.3%
Kalmar FF

Model

22.1%

Market, margin removed

21.8%

Probability gap

+0.3 pp

Edge

−7.2%

Fair odds

4.53

Market odds

4.20 Bet365

Price at which a 5% edge begins

4.75

Bookmaker margin

9.3%

Outcomes with value

7 of 17 rated

Goals by team Great value

Kalmar FF 2+ goals

3.25 Bet365 · fair 2.53 +28.4%

model 39.5% · book 29.1% (no margin)

Measured model skill on this market: +2.61%.

Goals by team Worth playing

Kalmar FF to score

1.44 Bet365 · fair 1.31 +10.4%

model 76.4% · book 64.5% (no margin)

Measured model skill on this market: +2.56%.

Goals by team Worth playing

Malmö FF 2+ goals

1.73 Bet365 · fair 1.59 +8.8%

model 63.0% · book 53.7% (no margin)

Measured model skill on this market: +3.62%.

Goals by team Marginal

Malmö FF to score

1.14 Bet365 · fair 1.12 +1.9%

model 89.1% · book 82.8% (no margin)

Measured model skill on this market: +3.77%.

Both teams to score Great value

Both teams to score

1.70 Bet365 · fair 1.44 +18.0%

model 69.4% · book 54.7% (no margin)

No measured model skill on this market (-0.43%).

Goals Great value

Over 2.5 goals

1.73 Bet365 · fair 1.47 +17.3%

model 67.9% · book 54.6% (no margin)

No measured model skill on this market (-0.89%).

Goals Worth playing

Over 1.5 goals

1.22 Bet365 · fair 1.13 +8.2%

model 88.5% · book 76.6% (no margin)

No measured model skill on this market (-0.01%).

No value Kalmar FF to win -7.2% Draw -7.7% Malmö FF to win -9.4% Kalmar FF at most 1 goal -19.4% Malmö FF at most 1 goal -26.0% Under 2.5 goals -33.5% Both teams not to score -37.3% Kalmar FF not to score -38.2% Malmö FF not to score -40.2% Under 1.5 goals -54.1%

Best opportunity

Kalmar FF 2+ goals

odds · Bet365 3.25 value +28.4%

Model 39.5% vs. bookmaker 29.1%, margin removed.

Markets 7 / 17

Match result

Kalmar FF to win model 22.1% · book 21.8% (no margin) -7.2% 4.20 fair 4.53

Not worth it

Draw model 24.6% · book 24.4% (no margin) -7.7% 3.75 fair 4.06

Not worth it

Malmö FF to win model 53.3% · book 53.8% (no margin) -9.4% 1.70 fair 1.88

Not worth it

Goals

Over 2.5 goals model 67.9% · book 54.6% (no margin) +17.3% 1.73 fair 1.47

Great value

No measured model skill on this market (-0.89%).

Over 1.5 goals model 88.5% · book 76.6% (no margin) +8.2% 1.22 fair 1.13

Worth playing

No measured model skill on this market (-0.01%).

Under 2.5 goals model 32.1% · book 45.4% (no margin) -33.5% 2.08 fair 3.12

Stay away

Under 1.5 goals model 11.5% · book 23.4% (no margin) -54.1% 4.00 fair 8.72

Stay away

Both teams to score

Both teams to score model 69.4% · book 54.7% (no margin) +18.0% 1.70 fair 1.44

Great value

No measured model skill on this market (-0.43%).

Both teams not to score model 30.6% · book 45.3% (no margin) -37.3% 2.05 fair 3.27

Stay away

Goals by team

Kalmar FF 2+ goals model 39.5% · book 29.1% (no margin) +28.4% 3.25 fair 2.53

Great value

Measured model skill on this market: +2.61%.

Kalmar FF to score model 76.4% · book 64.5% (no margin) +10.4% 1.44 fair 1.31

Worth playing

Measured model skill on this market: +2.56%.

Malmö FF 2+ goals model 63.0% · book 53.7% (no margin) +8.8% 1.73 fair 1.59

Worth playing

Measured model skill on this market: +3.62%.

Malmö FF to score model 89.1% · book 82.8% (no margin) +1.9% 1.14 fair 1.12

Marginal

Measured model skill on this market: +3.77%.

Kalmar FF at most 1 goal model 60.5% · book 70.9% (no margin) -19.4% 1.33 fair 1.65

Stay away

Malmö FF at most 1 goal model 37.0% · book 46.3% (no margin) -26.0% 2.00 fair 2.70

Stay away

Kalmar FF not to score model 23.6% · book 35.5% (no margin) -38.2% 2.63 fair 4.25

Stay away

Malmö FF not to score model 10.9% · book 17.2% (no margin) -40.2% 5.50 fair 9.20

Stay away

Hide the outcomes without value

Skill is what a backtest measured each market at, over 7 competitions to 17/08/2026. Across every market at once it is +2.50%. Markets measured at nothing are ranked last and never recommended. How that is measured →

The model's case

Why the model leans Malmö FF

53% Malmö FF to win

Attack: 2nd vs 8th; Malmö FF attack v Kalmar FF defence
Defence: 5th vs 12th; Malmö FF defence v Kalmar FF attack
Recent xG form: +1.05 vs -1.15; xGD per match, last 6
Projected goals: 2.05 – 1.34; Malmö FF v Kalmar FF

How the model arrived here →

Team comparison

Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.

Overview: Malmö FF and Kalmar FF compared, each figure with where it places in the competition.
Reading	Malmö FF	Kalmar FF
xG / match	(better) 2.04 · 4th	1.31 · 13th
xGA / match	(better) 1.50 · 6th	1.74 · 9th
xGD / match	(better) +0.54 · 4th	-0.43 · 11th
xPts / match	(better) 1.67 · 5th	1.21 · 10th
Last 6 xGD / match	(better) +1.05	-1.15

Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition.

Attack: Malmö FF and Kalmar FF compared, each figure with where it places in the competition.
Reading	Malmö FF	Kalmar FF
xG / match	(better) 2.04 · 4th	1.31 · 13th
npxG / match	(better) 2.04	1.31
Shots / match	(better) 14.9 · 4th	13.4 · 8th
npxG / shot	(better) 0.14 · 3rd	0.10 · 15th

Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition.

Defence: Malmö FF and Kalmar FF compared, each figure with where it places in the competition.
Reading	Malmö FF	Kalmar FF
xGA / match	(better) 1.50 · 6th	1.74 · 9th
Shots faced / match	(better) 12.9 · 7th	14.3 · 10th
npxGA / shot	(better) 0.12 · 5th	0.12 · 8th

The last 6 matches, per match.

Form: Malmö FF and Kalmar FF compared, each figure with where it places in the competition.
Reading	Malmö FF	Kalmar FF
Last 6 xG / match	(better) 2.30	1.20
Last 6 xGA / match	(better) 1.25	2.35
Last 6 xGD / match	(better) +1.05	-1.15

The scorelines behind the model's numbers

No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 29% of the model's distribution.

Malmö FF clean sheet: 24%
Malmö FF 2+ goals: 63%
Under 2.5 goals: 32%
Both teams to score: no: 31%

Most likely scorelines

1:1: 10.9%
2:1: 10.8%
2:2: 7.5%

Value calculator

Check your bookmaker's price

The prices above are one bookmaker's. Type your own to check it against the model.

How value is calculated

Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.

Nothing you type is remembered.

Open the calculator

Match result

Malmö FF to win

53.3% 1.88 —

Draw

24.6% 4.06 —

Kalmar FF to win

22.1% 4.53 —

Goals

Over 1.5 goals

88.5% 1.13 —

Under 1.5 goals

11.5% 8.72 —

Over 2.5 goals

67.9% 1.47 —

Under 2.5 goals

32.1% 3.12 —

Both teams to score

69.4% 1.44 —

Both teams not to score

30.6% 3.27 —

Team goals — Malmö FF

Malmö FF to score

89.1% 1.12 —

Malmö FF not to score

10.9% 9.20 —

Malmö FF 2+ goals

63.0% 1.59 —

Malmö FF at most 1 goal

37.0% 2.70 —

Team goals — Kalmar FF

Kalmar FF to score

76.4% 1.31 —

Kalmar FF not to score

23.6% 4.25 —

Kalmar FF 2+ goals

39.5% 2.53 —

Kalmar FF at most 1 goal

60.5% 1.65 —

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Malmö FF sample: 20 matches
Kalmar FF sample: 17 matches
Home xG sample · Malmö FF: 9 matches
Away xG sample · Kalmar FF: 11 matches
Computed: Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 03:30
Odds updated: 1 minute ago

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Malmö FF

2.30 xG created 1.25 xGA

W 3.22 created, 1.73 conceded against IF Brommapojkarna
L 2.53 created, 0.70 conceded against Degerfors IF
W 0.22 created, 1.35 conceded against GAIS
W 1.77 created, 1.72 conceded against IK Sirius
W 3.24 created, 1.31 conceded against Örgryte IS
L 2.82 created, 0.71 conceded against Västerås SK

Kalmar FF

1.20 xG created 2.35 xGA

L 0.99 created, 2.71 conceded against IFK Göteborg
L 0.42 created, 3.78 conceded against Hammarby IF
D 1.11 created, 0.98 conceded against Västerås SK
L 1.94 created, 1.31 conceded against Halmstads BK
L 1.88 created, 2.11 conceded against IF Elfsborg
L 0.88 created, 3.23 conceded against BK Häcken

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

0 won · 1 drawn · 0 lost

Kalmar FF 2:2 Malmö FF 20/07/2026 expected 1.23 – 1.55

What the model expects

Model vs market

Draw

Kalmar FF

Outcomes with value

Why the model leans Malmö FF

Team comparison

Malmö FF attack → Kalmar FF defence

Kalmar FF attack → Malmö FF defence

The scorelines behind the model's numbers

Most likely scorelines

Check your bookmaker's price

Match result

Goals

Both teams to score

Team goals — Malmö FF

Team goals — Kalmar FF

Model details