Malmö FF 4:1 Örgryte IS: xG & match report · Allsvenskan

Sunday, 13/09/2026 at 16:30

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Match report · Allsvenskan

Malmö FF Home 3.24 xG

Örgryte IS Away 1.31 xG

41 The scoreline reflected the chances

Malmö FF were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 65%. They won 4–1. The biggest difference was Malmö FF's attack: 3.24 xG against 2.43 projected (+0.81).

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Malmö FF: 65% What happened
Draw: 21%
Örgryte IS: 14%

Data coverage Both teams have at least 10 matches in the model window, but at least one has fewer than the full 20.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Malmö FF 2.43 3.24 +0.81

Örgryte IS 1.19 1.31 +0.12

Malmö FF produced 0.81 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Malmö FF Örgryte IS

Shots: 25; 7
On target: 12; 1
Inside the box: 19; 4
xG per shot: 0.13; 0.19

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Malmö FF

1.76 xG created 1.28 xGA

D 1.55 created, 1.23 conceded against Kalmar FF
L 1.28 created, 0.92 conceded against IF Elfsborg
W 3.22 created, 1.73 conceded against IF Brommapojkarna
L 2.53 created, 0.70 conceded against Degerfors IF
W 0.22 created, 1.35 conceded against GAIS
W 1.77 created, 1.72 conceded against IK Sirius

Örgryte IS

1.62 xG created 2.57 xGA

W 2.36 created, 1.35 conceded against AIK
L 2.39 created, 1.96 conceded against AIK
L 1.29 created, 3.40 conceded against IF Brommapojkarna
D 2.09 created, 2.67 conceded against Halmstads BK
L 0.98 created, 2.01 conceded against IFK Göteborg
D 0.61 created, 4.04 conceded against Hammarby IF

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Malmö FF: 0 won · 1 drawn · 0 lost

Örgryte IS 1:1 Malmö FF 05/04/2026

Pre-match model & market record

7 opportunities flagged5 won2 lost

Lost
Won
Won
Won
Lost
Won
Won

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Malmö FF against Örgryte IS before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Örgryte IS 2+ goals	3.50	+18.8%	Lost
Both teams to score	1.70	+16.1%	Won
Over 2.5 goals	1.53	+11.1%	Won
Örgryte IS to score	1.50	+8.7%	Won
Draw	5.25	+8.1%	Lost
Over 1.5 goals	1.17	+5.8%	Won
Malmö FF 2+ goals	1.40	+1.3%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Malmö FF	64.9%	66.0%	−1.0 pp	1.54
Draw	20.6%	18.1%	+2.4 pp	4.86
Örgryte IS	14.5%	15.9%	−1.4 pp	6.91

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Malmö FF to score	92.9%	89.4%	+3.5 pp	1.08
Malmö FF not to score	7.1%	10.6%	−3.5 pp	14.00
Örgryte IS to score	72.5%	62.5%	+10.0 pp	1.38
Örgryte IS not to score	27.5%	37.5%	−10.0 pp	3.63
Both teams to score	68.3%	54.7%	+13.6 pp	1.46
Both teams not to score	31.7%	45.3%	−13.6 pp	3.16
Malmö FF 2+ goals	72.4%	66.3%	+6.1 pp	1.38
Malmö FF at most 1 goal	27.6%	33.7%	−6.1 pp	3.62
Örgryte IS 2+ goals	33.9%	26.9%	+7.1 pp	2.95
Örgryte IS at most 1 goal	66.1%	73.1%	−7.1 pp	1.51
Over 1.5 goals	90.7%	81.1%	+9.6 pp	1.10
Under 1.5 goals	9.3%	18.9%	−9.6 pp	10.71
Over 2.5 goals	72.5%	61.0%	+11.4 pp	1.38
Under 2.5 goals	27.5%	39.0%	−11.4 pp	3.63

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Malmö FF sample: 20 matches
Örgryte IS sample: 19 matches
Computed: 6 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 6 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.