Monday, 02/11/2026 at 19:00
26d 19h to kick-offMjällby AIF – Kalmar FF
Model updated 6 October, 21:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Mjällby AIF
- 37%
- Draw
- 26%
- Kalmar FF
- 37%
| Mjällby AIF | Draw | Kalmar FF | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.73 | 3.79 | 2.70 |
- Total goals
- 3.42
- Over 2.5 goals
- 69%
- Both teams to score
- 73%
Both teams have at least 10 matches in the model window, but at least one has fewer than the full 20.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model can't separate them
37% Kalmar FF to win
- Attack
- 12th vs 13th
- Kalmar FF attack v Mjällby AIF defence
- Defence
- 8th vs 11th
- Kalmar FF defence v Mjällby AIF attack
- Recent xG form
- -1.15 vs -1.22
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.71 – 1.72
- Mjällby AIF v Kalmar FF
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Mjällby AIF | Kalmar FF |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 1.59 · 10th | 1.31 · 13th |
| xGA / match | 2.07 · 13th | (better) 1.74 · 9th |
| xGD / match | -0.48 · 12th | (better) -0.43 · 11th |
| xPts / match | 1.08 · 13th | (better) 1.21 · 10th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -1.22 | (better) -1.15 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 30% of the model's distribution.
- Kalmar FF clean sheet
- 16%
- Kalmar FF 2+ goals
- 53%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 31%
- Both teams to score: no
- 27%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 11.2%
- 1:2
- 9.2%
- 2:1
- 9.1%
Check your bookmaker's price
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Mjällby AIF sample
- 20 matches
- Kalmar FF sample
- 17 matches
- Home xG sample · Mjällby AIF
- 8 matches
- Away xG sample · Kalmar FF
- 11 matches
- Computed
- Tuesday, 06/10/2026 at 21:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.