Sunday, 01/11/2026 at 14:30
Full timeRed Bull Salzburg 5:1 SC Austria Lustenau
Red Bull Salzburg were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 74%. They won 5–1. The biggest difference was Red Bull Salzburg's attack: 3.59 xG against 2.68 projected (+0.91). SC Austria Lustenau produced 1.32 xG against 0.97 projected (+0.35).
Goals
- 12' Yorbe Vertessen Red Bull Salzburg · 0.06 xG chance 1–0
- 27' Frans Krätzig Red Bull Salzburg · 0.14 xG chance 2–0
- 35' Tim Drexler Red Bull Salzburg · 0.16 xG chance 3–0
- 68' Robin Voisine (o.g.) Red Bull Salzburg 4–0
- 82' Abubakr Barry Red Bull Salzburg · 0.03 xG chance 5–0
- 90' Albin Gashi SC Austria Lustenau · 0.04 xG chance 5–1
The model against the result
- Red Bull Salzburg
- 74% What happened
- Draw
- 17%
- SC Austria Lustenau
- 9%
Data coverage Both teams have at least 10 matches in the model window, but at least one has fewer than the full 20.
Projected vs produced
Red Bull Salzburg produced 0.91 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 32
- 10
- On target
- 10
- 4
- Inside the box
- 22
- 3
- xG per shot
- 0.11
- 0.14
- Open play xG
- 1.65
- 1.37
- Set-piece xG
- 1.90
- 0.00
- Penalties
- —
- —
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 3.59 for Red Bull Salzburg and 1.32 for SC Austria Lustenau.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
42 shots · 4.92 xG
Hover or tap a shot, or step through them with the arrows.
- Red Bull Salzburg
- SC Austria Lustenau
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
2.05 xG created 0.82 xGA
- W 2.75 created, 1.02 conceded against SK Rapid Wien
- D 1.56 created, 0.82 conceded against SV Ried
- W 1.61 created, 0.49 conceded against SK Sturm Graz
- D 1.07 created, 1.12 conceded against Grazer AK 1902
- W 2.89 created, 0.56 conceded against SC Rheindorf Altach
- W 2.44 created, 0.90 conceded against LASK
1.00 xG created 2.70 xGA
- L 0.93 created, 2.60 conceded against WSG Tirol
- L 1.48 created, 1.52 conceded against Austria Wien
- W 0.81 created, 1.07 conceded against SC Rheindorf Altach
- L 1.37 created, 3.60 conceded against TSV Hartberg
- L 0.27 created, 3.32 conceded against LASK
- L 1.12 created, 4.11 conceded against SK Rapid Wien
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Pre-match model & market record
7 qualified edges flagged2 won5 lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Won
- Won
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| SC Austria Lustenau to win | 15.00 | +31.5% | Lost |
| Draw | 7.50 | +27.5% | Lost |
| Red Bull Salzburg at most 1 goal | 5.00 | +14.1% | Lost |
| Under 2.5 goals | 4.00 | +8.1% | Lost |
| Both teams to score | 1.70 | +6.6% | Won |
| SC Austria Lustenau to score | 1.62 | +5.7% | Won |
| SC Austria Lustenau 2+ goals | 4.00 | +1.0% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Red Bull Salzburg | 74.2% | 81.4% | −7.2 pp | 1.35 |
| Draw | 17.0% | 12.4% | +4.6 pp | 5.88 |
| SC Austria Lustenau | 8.8% | 6.2% | +2.6 pp | 11.41 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Red Bull Salzburg to score | 94.5% | 94.3% | +0.2 pp | 1.06 |
| Red Bull Salzburg not to score | 5.5% | 5.7% | −0.2 pp | 18.16 |
| SC Austria Lustenau to score | 65.4% | 57.7% | +7.8 pp | 1.53 |
| SC Austria Lustenau not to score | 34.6% | 42.3% | −7.8 pp | 2.89 |
| Both teams to score | 62.7% | 54.7% | +8.1 pp | 1.59 |
| Both teams not to score | 37.3% | 45.3% | −8.1 pp | 2.68 |
| Red Bull Salzburg 2+ goals | 77.2% | 81.1% | −3.9 pp | 1.30 |
| Red Bull Salzburg at most 1 goal | 22.8% | 18.9% | +3.9 pp | 4.38 |
| SC Austria Lustenau 2+ goals | 25.3% | 23.4% | +1.9 pp | 3.96 |
| SC Austria Lustenau at most 1 goal | 74.7% | 76.6% | −1.9 pp | 1.34 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 90.8% | 90.4% | +0.4 pp | 1.10 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 9.2% | 9.6% | −0.4 pp | 10.87 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 73.0% | 76.2% | −3.2 pp | 1.37 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 27.0% | 23.8% | +3.2 pp | 3.70 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Red Bull Salzburg sample
- 20 matches
- SC Austria Lustenau sample
- 10 matches
- Computed
- 1 hour before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 5 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.