Red Bull Salzburg 5:1 SK Rapid Wien: xG & match report · Austrian Bundesliga

Wednesday, 02/09/2026 at 20:30

Full time

Match report · Austrian Bundesliga

Red Bull Salzburg Home 2.75 xG · 16 shots

SK Rapid Wien Away 1.02 xG · 17 shots

51 The scoreline reflected the chances

Red Bull Salzburg were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 53%. They won 5–1. The biggest difference was Red Bull Salzburg's attack: 2.75 xG against 1.91 projected (+0.84).

Goals

4' Haris Tabaković Red Bull Salzburg · 0.22 xG chance 1–0
15' Nikolas Veratschnig Red Bull Salzburg · 0.10 xG chance 2–0
21' Haris Tabaković Red Bull Salzburg · 0.08 xG chance 3–0
46' Edmund Baidoo Red Bull Salzburg · 0.13 xG chance 4–0
51' Matthias Seidl SK Rapid Wien · 0.03 xG chance 4–1
90' Karim Konaté Red Bull Salzburg · 0.94 xG chance 5–1

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Red Bull Salzburg: 53% What happened
Draw: 26%
SK Rapid Wien: 21%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Red Bull Salzburg 1.91 2.75 +0.84

SK Rapid Wien 1.19 1.02 -0.17

Red Bull Salzburg produced 0.84 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Red Bull Salzburg SK Rapid Wien

Shots: 16; 17
On target: 9; 4
Inside the box: 11; 8
xG per shot: 0.18; 0.06
Open play xG: 2.82; 0.80
Set-piece xG: 0.01; 0.16
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 2.83 for Red Bull Salzburg and 0.95 for SK Rapid Wien.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

33 shots · 3.79 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Red Bull Salzburg
SK Rapid Wien
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Red Bull Salzburg

2.67 xG created 1.22 xGA

L 1.34 created, 1.03 conceded against LASK
L 1.84 created, 1.05 conceded against TSV Hartberg
W 4.11 created, 0.73 conceded against TSV Hartberg
D 3.52 created, 0.93 conceded against Wolfsberger AC
W 3.47 created, 2.81 conceded against WSG Tirol
W 1.71 created, 0.76 conceded against Austria Wien

SK Rapid Wien

2.21 xG created 1.18 xGA

L 0.20 created, 2.75 conceded against SK Sturm Graz
W 2.17 created, 0.50 conceded against SV Ried
W 1.63 created, 1.29 conceded against SC Rheindorf Altach
W 1.77 created, 1.07 conceded against SV Ried
W 5.49 created, 0.76 conceded against Grazer AK 1902
W 2.01 created, 0.72 conceded against SK Sturm Graz

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Red Bull Salzburg: 1 won · 0 drawn · 3 lost

Pre-match model & market record

3 opportunities flagged1 won2 lost

Lost
Won
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Red Bull Salzburg against SK Rapid Wien before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Under 2.5 goals	2.70	+3.6%	Lost
SK Rapid Wien at most 1 goal	1.53	+1.7%	Won
Draw	3.90	+0.9%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Red Bull Salzburg	53.4%	52.3%	+1.1 pp	1.87
Draw	25.9%	24.1%	+1.7 pp	3.87
SK Rapid Wien	20.7%	23.5%	−2.8 pp	4.83

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Red Bull Salzburg to score	87.3%	86.4%	+0.9 pp	1.15
Red Bull Salzburg not to score	12.7%	13.6%	−0.9 pp	7.88
SK Rapid Wien to score	72.3%	73.1%	−0.9 pp	1.38
SK Rapid Wien not to score	27.7%	26.9%	+0.9 pp	3.61
Both teams to score	64.5%	64.5%	+0.0 pp	1.55
Both teams not to score	35.5%	35.5%	−0.0 pp	2.82
Red Bull Salzburg 2+ goals	58.9%	60.8%	−1.9 pp	1.70
Red Bull Salzburg at most 1 goal	41.1%	39.2%	+1.9 pp	2.43
SK Rapid Wien 2+ goals	33.7%	39.2%	−5.5 pp	2.97
SK Rapid Wien at most 1 goal	66.3%	60.8%	+5.5 pp	1.51
Over 1.5 goals	85.1%	84.2%	+0.9 pp	1.17
Under 1.5 goals	14.9%	15.8%	−0.9 pp	6.73
Over 2.5 goals	61.6%	65.2%	−3.5 pp	1.62
Under 2.5 goals	38.4%	34.8%	+3.5 pp	2.61

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Red Bull Salzburg sample: 20 matches
SK Rapid Wien sample: 20 matches
Computed: 9 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 9 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.