Friday, 11/09/2026 at 19:30
Full timeSV Ried 1:1 Red Bull Salzburg
Red Bull Salzburg were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 50%. It finished 1–1. The biggest difference was SV Ried's attack: 0.82 xG against 1.32 projected (−0.50). Red Bull Salzburg produced 1.56 xG against 1.90 projected (−0.34).
Goals
- 84' Karim Konaté Red Bull Salzburg · 0.08 xG chance 0–1
- 86' Philipp Pomer SV Ried · 0.13 xG chance 1–1
The model against the result
- SV Ried
- 24%
- Draw
- 26% What happened
- Red Bull Salzburg
- 50%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
SV Ried produced 0.50 xG less than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 8
- 24
- On target
- 2
- 6
- Inside the box
- 6
- 14
- xG per shot
- 0.11
- 0.06
- Open play xG
- 0.65
- 1.29
- Set-piece xG
- 0.22
- 0.20
- Penalties
- —
- —
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 0.87 for SV Ried and 1.48 for Red Bull Salzburg.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
32 shots · 2.36 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- SV Ried
- Red Bull Salzburg
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
1.45 xG created 1.84 xGA
- L 0.50 created, 2.17 conceded against SK Rapid Wien
- D 2.92 created, 0.78 conceded against SC Austria Lustenau
- L 1.07 created, 1.77 conceded against SK Rapid Wien
- L 0.76 created, 2.32 conceded against LASK
- W 1.75 created, 1.24 conceded against Grazer AK 1902
- L 1.67 created, 2.78 conceded against TSV Hartberg
2.90 xG created 1.22 xGA
- L 1.84 created, 1.05 conceded against TSV Hartberg
- W 4.11 created, 0.73 conceded against TSV Hartberg
- D 3.52 created, 0.93 conceded against Wolfsberger AC
- W 3.47 created, 2.81 conceded against WSG Tirol
- W 1.71 created, 0.76 conceded against Austria Wien
- W 2.75 created, 1.02 conceded against SK Rapid Wien
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
3 opportunities flagged2 won1 lost
- Lost
- Won
- Won
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| SV Ried to win | 5.75 | +38.5% | Lost |
| Draw | 4.50 | +16.9% | Won |
| Both teams to score | 1.53 | +3.9% | Won |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SV Ried | 24.1% | 16.4% | +7.7 pp | 4.15 |
| Draw | 26.0% | 20.9% | +5.1 pp | 3.85 |
| Red Bull Salzburg | 49.9% | 62.7% | −12.8 pp | 2.00 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | 67.7% | 60.8% | +7.0 pp | 1.48 |
| Both teams not to score | 32.3% | 39.2% | −7.0 pp | 3.10 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 86.8% | 82.8% | +4.0 pp | 1.15 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 13.2% | 17.2% | −4.0 pp | 7.55 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 64.5% | 62.5% | +2.0 pp | 1.55 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 35.5% | 37.5% | −2.0 pp | 2.82 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- SV Ried sample
- 20 matches
- Red Bull Salzburg sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 8 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 8 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.