SC Rheindorf Altach 1:2 Grazer AK 1902: xG & match report · Austrian Bundesliga

Saturday, 12/09/2026 at 17:00

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Match report · Austrian Bundesliga

SC Rheindorf Altach Home 1.24 xG · 14 shots

Grazer AK 1902 Away 0.39 xG · 8 shots

12 The result went against the chances

SC Rheindorf Altach were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 39%. Grazer AK 1902 won 2–1. The biggest difference was Grazer AK 1902's attack: 0.39 xG against 1.17 projected (−0.78).

Goals

6' Yannick Oberleitner Grazer AK 1902 · 0.03 xG chance 0–1
25' Yann Massombo SC Rheindorf Altach · 0.06 xG chance 1–1
38' Alexander Hofleitner Grazer AK 1902 · 0.10 xG chance 1–2

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

SC Rheindorf Altach: 39%
Draw: 31%
Grazer AK 1902: 30% What happened

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

SC Rheindorf Altach 1.35 1.24 -0.11

Grazer AK 1902 1.17 0.39 -0.78

Grazer AK 1902 produced 0.78 xG less than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

SC Rheindorf Altach Grazer AK 1902

Shots: 14; 8
On target: 4; 5
Inside the box: 9; 7
xG per shot: 0.09; 0.04
Open play xG: 1.13; 0.25
Set-piece xG: 0.19; 0.10
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.27 for SC Rheindorf Altach and 0.33 for Grazer AK 1902.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

22 shots · 1.67 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

SC Rheindorf Altach
Grazer AK 1902
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

SC Rheindorf Altach

1.70 xG created 1.54 xGA

W 3.78 created, 1.11 conceded against SV Ried
L 1.29 created, 1.63 conceded against SK Rapid Wien
W 1.48 created, 0.84 conceded against WSG Tirol
L 1.44 created, 1.53 conceded against SK Sturm Graz
L 1.91 created, 1.22 conceded against TSV Hartberg
L 0.28 created, 2.88 conceded against LASK

Grazer AK 1902

1.47 xG created 1.83 xGA

W 2.06 created, 0.78 conceded against FC Blau Weiss Linz
L 0.99 created, 2.31 conceded against LASK
W 1.65 created, 0.56 conceded against SC Austria Lustenau
L 0.76 created, 5.49 conceded against SK Rapid Wien
L 1.24 created, 1.75 conceded against SV Ried
D 2.14 created, 0.09 conceded against Wolfsberger AC

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

SC Rheindorf Altach: 1 won · 2 drawn · 1 lost

Pre-match model & market record

4 opportunities flagged2 won2 lost

Won
Lost
Won
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on SC Rheindorf Altach against Grazer AK 1902 before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
SC Rheindorf Altach at most 1 goal	1.73	+3.8%	Won
Draw	3.30	+3.8%	Lost
Grazer AK 1902 to win	3.40	+1.1%	Won
SC Rheindorf Altach not to score	4.33	+0.9%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
SC Rheindorf Altach	38.8%	43.8%	−5.0 pp	2.58
Draw	31.4%	28.5%	+2.9 pp	3.18
Grazer AK 1902	29.7%	27.7%	+2.0 pp	3.36

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
SC Rheindorf Altach to score	76.7%	78.3%	−1.6 pp	1.30
SC Rheindorf Altach not to score	23.3%	21.7%	+1.6 pp	4.29
Grazer AK 1902 to score	71.7%	68.7%	+2.9 pp	1.40
Grazer AK 1902 not to score	28.3%	31.3%	−2.9 pp	3.53
Both teams to score	56.8%	55.7%	+1.1 pp	1.76
Both teams not to score	43.2%	44.3%	−1.1 pp	2.32
SC Rheindorf Altach 2+ goals	39.9%	46.3%	−6.5 pp	2.51
SC Rheindorf Altach at most 1 goal	60.1%	53.7%	+6.5 pp	1.66
Grazer AK 1902 2+ goals	33.0%	33.7%	−0.8 pp	3.03
Grazer AK 1902 at most 1 goal	67.0%	66.3%	+0.8 pp	1.49
Over 1.5 goals	75.8%	73.1%	+2.7 pp	1.32
Under 1.5 goals	24.2%	26.9%	−2.7 pp	4.13
Over 2.5 goals	47.0%	48.7%	−1.7 pp	2.13
Under 2.5 goals	53.0%	51.3%	+1.7 pp	1.89

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
SC Rheindorf Altach sample: 20 matches
Grazer AK 1902 sample: 20 matches
Computed: 2 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 2 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.