Friday, 18/09/2026 at 19:30
Full timeSK Rapid Wien 3:0 WSG Tirol
SK Rapid Wien were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 48%. They won 3–0. The biggest difference was SK Rapid Wien's attack: 2.87 xG against 1.46 projected (+1.41). WSG Tirol produced 0.36 xG against 0.94 projected (−0.58).
Goals
- 33' Ercan Kara SK Rapid Wien · 0.33 xG chance 1–0
- 67' Bendegúz Bolla SK Rapid Wien · 0.35 xG chance 2–0
- 86' Nikolaus Wurmbrand SK Rapid Wien · 0.47 xG chance 3–0
The model against the result
- SK Rapid Wien
- 48% What happened
- Draw
- 31%
- WSG Tirol
- 21%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
SK Rapid Wien produced 1.41 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 17
- 5
- On target
- 7
- 1
- Inside the box
- 13
- 3
- xG per shot
- 0.17
- 0.07
- Open play xG
- 2.60
- 0.31
- Set-piece xG
- 0.24
- 0.04
- Penalties
- —
- —
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 2.85 for SK Rapid Wien and 0.36 for WSG Tirol.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
22 shots · 3.19 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- SK Rapid Wien
- WSG Tirol
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
2.16 xG created 1.23 xGA
- W 1.63 created, 1.29 conceded against SC Rheindorf Altach
- W 1.77 created, 1.07 conceded against SV Ried
- W 5.49 created, 0.76 conceded against Grazer AK 1902
- W 2.01 created, 0.72 conceded against SK Sturm Graz
- L 1.02 created, 2.75 conceded against Red Bull Salzburg
- W 1.05 created, 0.77 conceded against Wolfsberger AC
1.71 xG created 1.57 xGA
- D 0.87 created, 2.32 conceded against SK Sturm Graz
- L 0.84 created, 1.48 conceded against SC Rheindorf Altach
- L 2.81 created, 3.47 conceded against Red Bull Salzburg
- W 2.60 created, 0.93 conceded against SC Austria Lustenau
- W 1.69 created, 0.51 conceded against Austria Wien
- D 1.47 created, 0.71 conceded against TSV Hartberg
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
7 opportunities flagged1 won6 lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Won
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| SK Rapid Wien not to score | 11.00 | +127.9% | Lost |
| SK Rapid Wien at most 1 goal | 3.40 | +90.5% | Lost |
| Under 1.5 goals | 6.50 | +73.1% | Lost |
| Draw | 5.25 | +62.4% | Lost |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.88 | +61.7% | Lost |
| WSG Tirol to win | 7.50 | +60.4% | Lost |
| Both teams not to score | 2.38 | +12.6% | Won |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SK Rapid Wien | 47.7% | 69.9% | −22.2 pp | 2.10 |
| Draw | 30.9% | 17.7% | +13.2 pp | 3.23 |
| WSG Tirol | 21.4% | 12.4% | +9.0 pp | 4.68 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SK Rapid Wien to score | 79.3% | 91.3% | −12.0 pp | 1.26 |
| SK Rapid Wien not to score | 20.7% | 8.7% | +12.0 pp | 4.83 |
| WSG Tirol to score | 64.0% | 62.5% | +1.5 pp | 1.56 |
| WSG Tirol not to score | 36.0% | 37.5% | −1.5 pp | 2.78 |
| Both teams to score | 52.6% | 60.8% | −8.2 pp | 1.90 |
| Both teams not to score | 47.4% | 39.2% | +8.2 pp | 2.11 |
| SK Rapid Wien 2+ goals | 44.0% | 72.3% | −28.4 pp | 2.27 |
| SK Rapid Wien at most 1 goal | 56.0% | 27.7% | +28.4 pp | 1.78 |
| WSG Tirol 2+ goals | 23.9% | 26.9% | −3.0 pp | 4.18 |
| WSG Tirol at most 1 goal | 76.1% | 73.1% | +3.0 pp | 1.31 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73.4% | 85.4% | −12.0 pp | 1.36 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 26.6% | 14.6% | +12.0 pp | 3.75 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43.8% | 67.3% | −23.5 pp | 2.29 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 56.2% | 32.7% | +23.5 pp | 1.78 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- SK Rapid Wien sample
- 20 matches
- WSG Tirol sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 10 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 10 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.