Sunday, 18/10/2026 at 14:30
14d 12h to kick-offWolfsberger AC – WSG Tirol
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Wolfsberger AC
- 36%
- Draw
- 31%
- WSG Tirol
- 33%
| Wolfsberger AC | Draw | WSG Tirol | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.79 | 3.18 | 3.05 |
- Total goals
- 2.54
- Over 2.5 goals
- 48%
- Both teams to score
- 58%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model can't separate them
36% Wolfsberger AC to win
- Attack
- 7th vs 7th
- Wolfsberger AC attack v WSG Tirol defence
- Defence
- 12th vs 10th
- Wolfsberger AC defence v WSG Tirol attack
- Recent xG form
- -2.04 vs -0.03
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.30 – 1.24
- Wolfsberger AC v WSG Tirol
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Wolfsberger AC | WSG Tirol |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.14 · 10th | (better) 1.52 · 6th |
| xGA / match | 2.53 · 12th | (better) 1.76 · 8th |
| xGD / match | -1.39 · 12th | (better) -0.24 · 7th |
| xPts / match | 0.70 · 12th | (better) 1.32 · 7th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -2.04 | (better) -0.03 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 35% of the model's distribution.
- Wolfsberger AC clean sheet
- 26%
- Wolfsberger AC 2+ goals
- 38%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 52%
- Both teams to score: no
- 42%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 16.1%
- 2:1
- 9.6%
- 1:2
- 9.1%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Wolfsberger AC sample
- 20 matches
- WSG Tirol sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Wolfsberger AC
- 4 matches
- Away xG sample · WSG Tirol
- 4 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.