SV Ried 4:1 Wolfsberger AC: xG & match report · Austrian Bundesliga

Sunday, 20/09/2026 at 14:30

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Match report · Austrian Bundesliga

SV Ried Home 4.74 xG · 20 shots

Wolfsberger AC Away 1.77 xG · 26 shots

41 The scoreline reflected the chances

SV Ried were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 48%. They won 4–1. The biggest difference was SV Ried's attack: 4.74 xG against 1.56 projected (+3.18). Wolfsberger AC produced 1.77 xG against 1.04 projected (+0.73).

Goals

3' Ante Bajić SV Ried · 0.50 xG chance 1–0
9' Evan Eghosa SV Ried · 0.52 xG chance 2–0
40' Stefan Schwab (pen.) SV Ried · 0.82 xG chance 3–0
81' Isaac Thelin SV Ried · 1.00 xG chance 4–0
87' Matteo Kitz Wolfsberger AC · 0.15 xG chance 4–1

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

SV Ried: 48% What happened
Draw: 30%
Wolfsberger AC: 22%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

SV Ried 1.56 4.74 +3.18

Wolfsberger AC 1.04 1.77 +0.73

SV Ried produced 3.18 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

SV Ried Wolfsberger AC

Shots: 20; 26
On target: 11; 5
Inside the box: 17; 16
xG per shot: 0.24; 0.07
Open play xG: 3.95; 1.15
Set-piece xG: 0.09; 0.66
Penalties: 1; 0

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 3.97 for SV Ried and 1.77 for Wolfsberger AC.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

46 shots · 6.67 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

SV Ried
Wolfsberger AC
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

SV Ried

1.50 xG created 1.74 xGA

D 2.92 created, 0.78 conceded against SC Austria Lustenau
L 1.07 created, 1.77 conceded against SK Rapid Wien
L 0.76 created, 2.32 conceded against LASK
W 1.75 created, 1.24 conceded against Grazer AK 1902
L 1.67 created, 2.78 conceded against TSV Hartberg
D 0.82 created, 1.56 conceded against Red Bull Salzburg

Wolfsberger AC

1.03 xG created 2.16 xGA

W 2.80 created, 0.35 conceded against Austria Wien
D 0.93 created, 3.52 conceded against Red Bull Salzburg
L 1.33 created, 3.13 conceded against SC Austria Lustenau
D 0.09 created, 2.14 conceded against Grazer AK 1902
L 0.27 created, 2.79 conceded against LASK
L 0.77 created, 1.05 conceded against SK Rapid Wien

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

SV Ried: 3 won · 1 drawn · 1 lost

Pre-match model & market record

4 opportunities flagged1 won3 lost

Lost
Lost
Won
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on SV Ried against Wolfsberger AC before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Draw	3.80	+12.7%	Lost
Under 2.5 goals	2.10	+6.3%	Lost
Wolfsberger AC at most 1 goal	1.40	+0.7%	Won
SV Ried at most 1 goal	1.91	+0.0%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
SV Ried	47.9%	48.3%	−0.4 pp	2.09
Draw	29.7%	24.8%	+4.9 pp	3.37
Wolfsberger AC	22.5%	26.9%	−4.4 pp	4.45

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
SV Ried to score	81.6%	81.1%	+0.5 pp	1.23
SV Ried not to score	18.4%	18.9%	−0.5 pp	5.43
Wolfsberger AC to score	67.7%	68.7%	−1.1 pp	1.48
Wolfsberger AC not to score	32.3%	31.3%	+1.1 pp	3.10
Both teams to score	57.0%	57.7%	−0.7 pp	1.76
Both teams not to score	43.0%	42.3%	+0.7 pp	2.32
SV Ried 2+ goals	47.6%	51.5%	−3.9 pp	2.10
SV Ried at most 1 goal	52.4%	48.5%	+3.9 pp	1.91
Wolfsberger AC 2+ goals	28.1%	33.7%	−5.7 pp	3.56
Wolfsberger AC at most 1 goal	71.9%	66.3%	+5.7 pp	1.39
Over 1.5 goals	77.5%	76.6%	+0.9 pp	1.29
Under 1.5 goals	22.5%	23.4%	−0.9 pp	4.45
Over 2.5 goals	49.4%	55.3%	−5.9 pp	2.02
Under 2.5 goals	50.6%	44.7%	+5.9 pp	1.98

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
SV Ried sample: 20 matches
Wolfsberger AC sample: 20 matches
Computed: 1 day before kick-off
Prices taken: 1 day before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.