1. FSV Mainz 05 0:0 SC Paderborn 07: xG & match report · Bundesliga

Saturday, 29/08/2026 at 15:30

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Match report · Bundesliga

1. FSV Mainz 05 Home 1.23 xG · 22 shots

SC Paderborn 07 Away 0.73 xG · 10 shots

00 1. FSV Mainz 05 had the better chances, but it finished level

1. FSV Mainz 05 were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 51%. It finished 0–0. The biggest difference was 1. FSV Mainz 05's attack: 1.23 xG against 1.89 projected (−0.66). SC Paderborn 07 produced 0.73 xG against 1.28 projected (−0.55).

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

1. FSV Mainz 05: 51%
Draw: 26% What happened
SC Paderborn 07: 23%

Data coverage The model has never seen one of these sides play. Every figure here rests on an exactly average stand-in for it, which is a guess in a projection's clothes.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

1. FSV Mainz 05 1.89 1.23 -0.66

SC Paderborn 07 1.28 0.73 -0.55

1. FSV Mainz 05 produced 0.66 xG less than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

1. FSV Mainz 05 SC Paderborn 07

Shots: 22; 10
On target: 4; 0
Inside the box: 14; 6
xG per shot: 0.06; 0.08
Open play xG: 0.92; 0.63
Set-piece xG: 0.31; 0.12
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 0.76 for SC Paderborn 07.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

32 shots · 1.98 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

1. FSV Mainz 05
SC Paderborn 07
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

1. FSV Mainz 05

2.23 xG created 1.57 xGA

L 0.55 created, 0.56 conceded against SC Freiburg
D 2.32 created, 0.62 conceded against Borussia M'gladbach
L 2.69 created, 2.21 conceded against FC Bayern München
W 2.54 created, 0.84 conceded against FC St. Pauli
L 1.57 created, 2.68 conceded against 1. FC Union Berlin
W 3.71 created, 2.53 conceded against 1. FC Heidenheim

SC Paderborn 07

No match with expected goals behind it yet.

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Pre-match model & market record

6 opportunities flagged1 won5 lost

Lost
Lost
Won
Lost
Lost
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on 1. FSV Mainz 05 against SC Paderborn 07 before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
SC Paderborn 07 to win	5.50	+27.5%	Lost
SC Paderborn 07 2+ goals	3.40	+26.6%	Lost
Draw	4.33	+13.0%	Won
SC Paderborn 07 to score	1.50	+12.2%	Lost
Both teams to score	1.67	+10.8%	Lost
Over 1.5 goals	1.17	+0.4%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
1. FSV Mainz 05	50.7%	61.0%	−10.3 pp	1.97
Draw	26.1%	21.8%	+4.3 pp	3.84
SC Paderborn 07	23.2%	17.2%	+6.0 pp	4.31

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
1. FSV Mainz 05 to score	87.0%	86.4%	+0.6 pp	1.15
1. FSV Mainz 05 not to score	13.0%	13.6%	−0.6 pp	7.69
SC Paderborn 07 to score	74.8%	62.5%	+12.3 pp	1.34
SC Paderborn 07 not to score	25.2%	37.5%	−12.3 pp	3.96
Both teams to score	66.5%	55.7%	+10.7 pp	1.50
Both teams not to score	33.5%	44.3%	−10.7 pp	2.98
1. FSV Mainz 05 2+ goals	58.3%	60.8%	−2.5 pp	1.72
1. FSV Mainz 05 at most 1 goal	41.7%	39.2%	+2.5 pp	2.40
SC Paderborn 07 2+ goals	37.2%	27.7%	+9.6 pp	2.69
SC Paderborn 07 at most 1 goal	62.8%	72.3%	−9.6 pp	1.59
Over 1.5 goals	86.0%	81.1%	+4.9 pp	1.16
Under 1.5 goals	14.0%	18.9%	−4.9 pp	7.14
Over 2.5 goals	63.2%	60.2%	+3.0 pp	1.58
Under 2.5 goals	36.8%	39.8%	−3.0 pp	2.72

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

· 1 warning

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
1. FSV Mainz 05 sample: 20 matches
SC Paderborn 07 sample: 0 matches
Computed: 6 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 6 hours before kick-off

Warnings

There is not a single played match in the database for SC Paderborn 07 — the estimate for that side is the league average and nothing else.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.