FC St. Pauli 1:2 1. FSV Mainz 05: xG & match report · Bundesliga

Sunday, 03/05/2026 at 15:30

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Match report · Bundesliga

FC St. Pauli Home 0.84 xG · 10 shots

1. FSV Mainz 05 Away 2.54 xG · 17 shots

12 The scoreline reflected the chances

Goals

6' Phillip Tietz 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 0.20 xG chance 0–1
40' Phillipp Mwene 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 0.77 xG chance 0–2
87' Abdoulie Ceesay FC St. Pauli · 0.26 xG chance 1–2

The shots behind it

FC St. Pauli 1. FSV Mainz 05

Shots: 10; 17
On target: 3; 6
Inside the box: 7; 15
xG per shot: 0.09; 0.14
Open play xG: 0.45; 1.89
Set-piece xG: 0.43; 0.54
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 0.86 for FC St. Pauli and 2.38 for 1. FSV Mainz 05.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

27 shots · 3.31 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

FC St. Pauli
1. FSV Mainz 05
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

FC St. Pauli

0.86 xG created 1.91 xGA

L 0.51 created, 0.71 conceded against Borussia M'gladbach
L 0.76 created, 2.04 conceded against SC Freiburg
D 0.33 created, 1.95 conceded against 1. FC Union Berlin
L 0.49 created, 3.84 conceded against FC Bayern München
D 2.01 created, 1.33 conceded against 1. FC Köln
L 1.06 created, 1.61 conceded against 1. FC Heidenheim

1. FSV Mainz 05

1.72 xG created 1.12 xGA

W 1.08 created, 0.88 conceded against SV Werder Bremen
W 1.55 created, 1.23 conceded against Eintracht Frankfurt
W 2.16 created, 1.23 conceded against TSG Hoffenheim
L 0.55 created, 0.56 conceded against SC Freiburg
D 2.32 created, 0.62 conceded against Borussia M'gladbach
L 2.69 created, 2.21 conceded against FC Bayern München

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

FC St. Pauli: 0 won · 1 drawn · 0 lost

1. FSV Mainz 05 0:0 FC St. Pauli 21/12/2025 xG 1.12 – 0.30

Model details

Show

The model never priced this match before kick-off, so there is no projection to read the result against.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.