Borussia M'gladbach 3:4 SV 07 Elversberg: xG & match report · Bundesliga

Saturday, 05/09/2026 at 15:30

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Match report · Bundesliga

Borussia M'gladbach Home 2.36 xG · 25 shots

SV 07 Elversberg Away 2.31 xG · 14 shots

34 The chances were evenly matched

Borussia M'gladbach were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 47%. SV 07 Elversberg won 4–3. The biggest difference was SV 07 Elversberg's attack: 2.31 xG against 1.28 projected (+1.03). Borussia M'gladbach produced 2.36 xG against 1.72 projected (+0.64).

Goals

11' Hugo Bolin Borussia M'gladbach · 0.27 xG chance 1–0
29' David Mokwa SV 07 Elversberg · 0.34 xG chance 1–1
44' Hugo Bolin Borussia M'gladbach · 0.16 xG chance 2–1
56' Joe Scally Borussia M'gladbach · 0.22 xG chance 3–1
66' Maurice Krattenmacher SV 07 Elversberg · 1.00 xG chance 3–2
80' Felix Keidel SV 07 Elversberg · 0.05 xG chance 3–3
90' Maurice Krattenmacher SV 07 Elversberg · 0.28 xG chance 3–4

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Borussia M'gladbach: 47%
Draw: 28%
SV 07 Elversberg: 26% What happened

Data coverage One of these teams has only 1 match in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Borussia M'gladbach 1.72 2.36 +0.64

SV 07 Elversberg 1.28 2.31 +1.03

SV 07 Elversberg produced 1.03 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Borussia M'gladbach SV 07 Elversberg

Shots: 25; 14
On target: 6; 10
Inside the box: 19; 10
xG per shot: 0.08; 0.20
Open play xG: 0.91; 2.78
Set-piece xG: 1.09; 0.05
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 2.02 for Borussia M'gladbach and 2.79 for SV 07 Elversberg.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

39 shots · 4.83 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Borussia M'gladbach
SV 07 Elversberg
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Borussia M'gladbach

1.13 xG created 2.07 xGA

D 0.62 created, 2.32 conceded against 1. FSV Mainz 05
D 0.51 created, 1.47 conceded against VfL Wolfsburg
W 2.20 created, 0.49 conceded against Borussia Dortmund
L 1.14 created, 2.59 conceded against FC Augsburg
W 1.20 created, 1.62 conceded against TSG Hoffenheim
L 1.09 created, 3.96 conceded against RB Leipzig

SV 07 Elversberg

1.27 xG created 1.88 xGA

W 1.27 created, 1.88 conceded against Bayer 04 Leverkusen

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Pre-match model & market record

3 opportunities flagged0 won3 lost

Lost
Lost
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Borussia M'gladbach against SV 07 Elversberg before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Under 2.5 goals	2.75	+11.5%	Lost
Draw	4.00	+10.7%	Lost
Borussia M'gladbach at most 1 goal	2.20	+2.9%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Borussia M'gladbach	46.6%	49.4%	−2.9 pp	2.15
Draw	27.7%	23.6%	+4.1 pp	3.61
SV 07 Elversberg	25.8%	27.0%	−1.2 pp	3.88

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Borussia M'gladbach to score	84.6%	84.2%	+0.4 pp	1.18
Borussia M'gladbach not to score	15.4%	15.8%	−0.4 pp	6.50
SV 07 Elversberg to score	74.8%	70.9%	+3.9 pp	1.34
SV 07 Elversberg not to score	25.2%	29.1%	−3.9 pp	3.96
Both teams to score	64.8%	64.5%	+0.3 pp	1.54
Both teams not to score	35.2%	35.5%	−0.3 pp	2.84
Borussia M'gladbach 2+ goals	53.2%	57.7%	−4.5 pp	1.88
Borussia M'gladbach at most 1 goal	46.8%	42.3%	+4.5 pp	2.14
SV 07 Elversberg 2+ goals	37.2%	35.5%	+1.7 pp	2.69
SV 07 Elversberg at most 1 goal	62.8%	64.5%	−1.7 pp	1.59
Over 1.5 goals	84.0%	84.2%	−0.3 pp	1.19
Under 1.5 goals	16.0%	15.8%	+0.3 pp	6.23
Over 2.5 goals	59.5%	65.6%	−6.1 pp	1.68
Under 2.5 goals	40.5%	34.4%	+6.1 pp	2.47

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

· 1 warning

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Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Borussia M'gladbach sample: 20 matches
SV 07 Elversberg sample: 1 match
Computed: 29 minutes before kick-off
Prices taken: 30 minutes before kick-off

Warnings

SV 07 Elversberg has only 1 match in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.