SV 07 Elversberg 3:2 Bayer 04 Leverkusen: xG & match report · Bundesliga

Saturday, 29/08/2026 at 15:30

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Match report · Bundesliga

SV 07 Elversberg Home 1.27 xG · 11 shots

Bayer 04 Leverkusen Away 1.88 xG · 21 shots

32 The result went against the chances

SV 07 Elversberg were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 41%. They won 3–2. The biggest difference was SV 07 Elversberg's attack: 1.27 xG against 1.72 projected (−0.45). Bayer 04 Leverkusen produced 1.88 xG against 1.52 projected (+0.36).

Goals

8' Lukas Petkov SV 07 Elversberg · 0.07 xG chance 1–0
9' Cole Campbell SV 07 Elversberg · 0.05 xG chance 2–0
46' David Mokwa SV 07 Elversberg · 0.46 xG chance 3–0
77' Patrik Schick Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 0.24 xG chance 3–1
90' Christian Kofane Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 0.27 xG chance 3–2

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

SV 07 Elversberg: 41% What happened
Draw: 27%
Bayer 04 Leverkusen: 32%

Data coverage The model has never seen one of these sides play. Every figure here rests on an exactly average stand-in for it, which is a guess in a projection's clothes.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

SV 07 Elversberg 1.72 1.27 -0.45

Bayer 04 Leverkusen 1.52 1.88 +0.36

SV 07 Elversberg produced 0.45 xG less than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

SV 07 Elversberg Bayer 04 Leverkusen

Shots: 11; 21
On target: 6; 4
Inside the box: 8; 13
xG per shot: 0.10; 0.10
Open play xG: 0.99; 1.39
Set-piece xG: 0.09; 0.67
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.12 for SV 07 Elversberg and 2.02 for Bayer 04 Leverkusen.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

32 shots · 3.14 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

SV 07 Elversberg
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

SV 07 Elversberg

No match with expected goals behind it yet.

Bayer 04 Leverkusen

2.33 xG created 1.95 xGA

W 0.63 created, 1.30 conceded against Borussia Dortmund
L 3.80 created, 1.33 conceded against FC Augsburg
W 1.33 created, 3.04 conceded against 1. FC Köln
W 4.42 created, 1.17 conceded against RB Leipzig
L 0.54 created, 3.04 conceded against VfB Stuttgart
D 3.27 created, 1.79 conceded against Hamburger SV

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Pre-match model & market record

7 opportunities flagged4 won3 lost

Won
Lost
Won
Lost
Lost
Won
Won

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on SV 07 Elversberg against Bayer 04 Leverkusen before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
SV 07 Elversberg to win	5.25	+115.2%	Won
Bayer 04 Leverkusen not to score	8.00	+54.4%	Lost
SV 07 Elversberg 2+ goals	2.75	+45.9%	Won
Bayer 04 Leverkusen at most 1 goal	2.63	+41.3%	Lost
Draw	4.33	+17.6%	Lost
SV 07 Elversberg to score	1.36	+15.3%	Won
Both teams to score	1.53	+6.7%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
SV 07 Elversberg	41.0%	18.2%	+22.8 pp	2.44
Draw	27.1%	22.1%	+5.1 pp	3.68
Bayer 04 Leverkusen	31.9%	59.7%	−27.9 pp	3.14

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
SV 07 Elversberg to score	84.5%	68.7%	+15.8 pp	1.18
SV 07 Elversberg not to score	15.5%	31.3%	−15.8 pp	6.46
Bayer 04 Leverkusen to score	80.7%	88.1%	−7.4 pp	1.24
Bayer 04 Leverkusen not to score	19.3%	11.9%	+7.4 pp	5.18
Both teams to score	69.6%	60.8%	+8.9 pp	1.44
Both teams not to score	30.4%	39.2%	−8.9 pp	3.29
SV 07 Elversberg 2+ goals	53.1%	33.7%	+19.3 pp	1.88
SV 07 Elversberg at most 1 goal	46.9%	66.3%	−19.3 pp	2.13
Bayer 04 Leverkusen 2+ goals	46.2%	64.5%	−18.3 pp	2.17
Bayer 04 Leverkusen at most 1 goal	53.8%	35.5%	+18.3 pp	1.86
Over 1.5 goals	87.0%	82.8%	+4.2 pp	1.15
Under 1.5 goals	13.0%	17.2%	−4.2 pp	7.70
Over 2.5 goals	64.8%	65.6%	−0.7 pp	1.54
Under 2.5 goals	35.2%	34.4%	+0.7 pp	2.84

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

· 1 warning

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Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
SV 07 Elversberg sample: 0 matches
Bayer 04 Leverkusen sample: 20 matches
Computed: 6 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 6 hours before kick-off

Warnings

There is not a single played match in the database for SV 07 Elversberg — the estimate for that side is the league average and nothing else.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.