Sunday, 06/09/2026 at 17:30
Full timeEintracht Frankfurt 1:4 FC Augsburg
Eintracht Frankfurt were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 46%. FC Augsburg won 4–1. The biggest difference was Eintracht Frankfurt's attack: 2.22 xG against 1.81 projected (+0.41). FC Augsburg produced 1.13 xG against 1.39 projected (−0.26).
Goals
- 6' Jonathan Burkardt Eintracht Frankfurt · 0.09 xG chance 1–0
- 46' Elias Baum (o.g.) FC Augsburg · 0.10 xG chance 1–1
- 47' Robin Fellhauer FC Augsburg · 0.46 xG chance 1–2
- 65' Alexis Claude-Maurice FC Augsburg · 0.05 xG chance 1–3
- 89' Fabian Rieder FC Augsburg · 0.06 xG chance 1–4
The model against the result
- Eintracht Frankfurt
- 46%
- Draw
- 27%
- FC Augsburg
- 27% What happened
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
Eintracht Frankfurt produced 0.41 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 22
- 18
- On target
- 8
- 8
- Inside the box
- 17
- 9
- xG per shot
- 0.09
- 0.08
- Open play xG
- 1.53
- 1.12
- Set-piece xG
- 0.38
- 0.30
- Penalties
- —
- —
Eintracht Frankfurt's shots add up to 1.91 xG and FC Augsburg's to 1.42; the published figures are 2.22 and 1.13.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
40 shots · 3.33 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- Eintracht Frankfurt
- FC Augsburg
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
1.39 xG created 1.64 xGA
- L 1.45 created, 2.09 conceded against RB Leipzig
- D 1.11 created, 2.00 conceded against FC Augsburg
- L 0.65 created, 0.62 conceded against Hamburger SV
- L 1.12 created, 1.94 conceded against Borussia Dortmund
- D 2.56 created, 1.32 conceded against VfB Stuttgart
- D 1.47 created, 1.84 conceded against 1. FC Union Berlin
2.10 xG created 2.10 xGA
- W 1.33 created, 3.80 conceded against Bayer 04 Leverkusen
- D 2.00 created, 1.11 conceded against Eintracht Frankfurt
- W 2.57 created, 1.35 conceded against SV Werder Bremen
- W 2.59 created, 1.14 conceded against Borussia M'gladbach
- L 0.61 created, 3.68 conceded against 1. FC Union Berlin
- W 3.52 created, 1.54 conceded against FC Schalke 04
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
2 opportunities flagged0 won2 lost
- Lost
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Draw | 4.10 | +9.8% | Lost |
| Under 2.5 goals | 3.00 | +7.7% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eintracht Frankfurt | 46.0% | 50.9% | −4.9 pp | 2.17 |
| Draw | 26.8% | 23.0% | +3.8 pp | 3.73 |
| FC Augsburg | 27.2% | 26.2% | +1.0 pp | 3.68 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | 68.4% | 64.5% | +3.9 pp | 1.46 |
| Both teams not to score | 31.6% | 35.5% | −3.9 pp | 3.16 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 86.6% | 85.4% | +1.2 pp | 1.15 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 13.4% | 14.6% | −1.2 pp | 7.46 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 64.1% | 68.2% | −4.1 pp | 1.56 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 35.9% | 31.8% | +4.1 pp | 2.79 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
Show Hide
- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Eintracht Frankfurt sample
- 20 matches
- FC Augsburg sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 3 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 3 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.