Not confirmed yet: the date can still move, and the kickoff time is set nearer the match.
RB Leipzig – Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Model updated 4 October, 03:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- RB Leipzig
- 41%
- Draw
- 26%
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen
- 33%
| RB Leipzig | Draw | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.46 | 3.78 | 3.04 |
- Total goals
- 3.36
- Over 2.5 goals
- 67%
- Both teams to score
- 71%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Bookmaker prices appear once the league confirms this match's date and kickoff time. Until then the model's preview above is all there is to compare.
Why the model leans RB Leipzig
41% RB Leipzig to win
- Attack
- 3rd vs 3rd
- RB Leipzig attack v Bayer 04 Leverkusen defence
- Defence
- 6th vs 2nd
- RB Leipzig defence v Bayer 04 Leverkusen attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.64 vs +0.86
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.76 – 1.59
- RB Leipzig v Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | RB Leipzig | Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 2.22 · 5th from 4 matches | (better) 2.48 · 2nd from 4 matches |
| xGA / match | 1.35 · 5th from 4 matches | (better) 0.94 · 4th from 4 matches |
| xGD / match | +0.86 · 4th from 4 matches | (better) +1.54 · 2nd from 4 matches |
| xPts / match | 1.85 · 5th from 4 matches | (better) 2.34 · 2nd from 4 matches |
| Last 6 xGD / match | +0.64 | (better) +0.86 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 30% of the model's distribution.
- RB Leipzig clean sheet
- 18%
- RB Leipzig 2+ goals
- 54%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 33%
- Both teams to score: no
- 29%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 11.6%
- 2:1
- 9.7%
- 1:2
- 8.7%
Check your bookmaker's price
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- RB Leipzig sample
- 20 matches
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · RB Leipzig
- 2 matches
- Away xG sample · Bayer 04 Leverkusen
- 2 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 03:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.