Saturday, 31/10/2026 at 15:30
27d 13h to kick-offBayer 04 Leverkusen – VfB Stuttgart
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen
- 57%
- Draw
- 23%
- VfB Stuttgart
- 20%
| Bayer 04 Leverkusen | Draw | VfB Stuttgart | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 1.75 | 4.35 | 5.00 |
- Total goals
- 3.59
- Over 2.5 goals
- 72%
- Both teams to score
- 71%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Bayer 04 Leverkusen
57% Bayer 04 Leverkusen to win
- Attack
- 2nd vs 11th
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen attack v VfB Stuttgart defence
- Defence
- 3rd vs 4th
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen defence v VfB Stuttgart attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.86 vs -0.36
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 2.24 – 1.35
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen v VfB Stuttgart
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | VfB Stuttgart |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 2.48 · 2nd from 4 matches | 1.89 · 8th from 4 matches |
| xGA / match | (better) 0.94 · 4th from 4 matches | 2.75 · 17th from 4 matches |
| xGD / match | (better) +1.54 · 2nd from 4 matches | -0.86 · 15th from 4 matches |
| xPts / match | (better) 2.34 · 2nd from 4 matches | 1.01 · 11th from 4 matches |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +0.86 | -0.36 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 28% of the model's distribution.
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen clean sheet
- 23%
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen 2+ goals
- 68%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 28%
- Both teams to score: no
- 29%
Most likely scorelines
- 2:1
- 10.5%
- 1:1
- 9.7%
- 3:1
- 8.0%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen sample
- 20 matches
- VfB Stuttgart sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Bayer 04 Leverkusen
- 2 matches
- Away xG sample · VfB Stuttgart
- 2 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.