Saturday, 10/10/2026 at 15:30
6d 15h to kick-off1. FSV Mainz 05 – Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Model updated 3 October, 21:30 Best odds updated 10 October, 12:00
What the model expects
- 1. FSV Mainz 05
- 37%
- Draw
- 27%
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen
- 36%
| 1. FSV Mainz 05 | Draw | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.72 | 3.70 | 2.76 |
- Total goals
- 3.28
- Over 2.5 goals
- 66%
- Both teams to score
- 70%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
The model sees an edge in 6 outcomes.
-
1. FSV Mainz 05
- Model
- 36.8%
- Market, margin removed
- 33.1%
- Probability gap
- +3.7 pp
- Edge
- +3.0%
- Fair odds
- 2.72
- Market odds
- 2.80 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 2.85
- Bookmaker margin
- 7.8%
-
Draw
- Model
- 27.0%
- Market, margin removed
- 24.7%
- Probability gap
- +2.3 pp
- Edge
- +1.3%
- Fair odds
- 3.70
- Market odds
- 3.75 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 3.89
- Bookmaker margin
- 7.8%
-
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
- Model
- 36.2%
- Market, margin removed
- 42.2%
- Probability gap
- −5.9 pp
- Edge
- −20.3%
- Fair odds
- 2.76
- Market odds
- 2.20 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 2.90
- Bookmaker margin
- 7.8%
Outcomes with value
1. FSV Mainz 05 to win
Measured model skill on this market: +7.19%.
1. FSV Mainz 05 to score
Measured model skill on this market: +3.77%.
1. FSV Mainz 05 2+ goals
Measured model skill on this market: +3.62%.
Both teams to score
No measured model skill on this market (-0.43%).
Draw
No measured model skill on this market (-1.04%).
Over 1.5 goals
No measured model skill on this market (-0.01%).
Best opportunity
1. FSV Mainz 05 to win
Model 36.8% vs. bookmaker 33.1%, margin removed.
Match result
Measured model skill on this market: +7.19%.
No measured model skill on this market (-1.04%).
Goals
No measured model skill on this market (-0.01%).
Both teams to score
No measured model skill on this market (-0.43%).
Goals by team
Measured model skill on this market: +3.77%.
Measured model skill on this market: +3.62%.
Skill is what a backtest measured each market at, over 7 competitions to 17/08/2026. Across every market at once it is +2.50%. Markets measured at nothing are ranked last and never recommended. How that is measured →
Why the model disagrees with the market
The leading outcome: 1. FSV Mainz 05 to win
What the model's reading is made of
- The model makes 1. FSV Mainz 05 to win 36.8%. The market, with the bookmaker's margin taken out, makes it 33.1%. The gap between the two is 3.7%.
- Bundesliga carries more home advantage than most: the baselines the fit reads put a home side's expected goals at 1.26 times an away side's, against a median of 1.22 across the competitions the model fits.
These are the parts of the model's own number, not an account of the bookmaker's. The fit reads two ratings a side, the competition's average home and away expected goals, the window it looks back over and how many matches it found in it — and nothing else is a reason this page can give.
What the model did not read
| Reading | 1. FSV Mainz 05 | Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
|---|---|---|
| Form — xG difference, the last 6 matches | +0.47 | +0.86 |
| Goals scored minus expected | +1.06 from 4 matches | +0.10 from 4 matches |
| Points won minus expected | -0.27 from 4 matches | -2.37 from 4 matches |
| npxG per shot | 0.12 from 4 matches | 0.11 from 4 matches |
All of this is in the database and none of it entered the fit. A reading here may point the other way from every line above it — where it does, both are true, and only one of them is in the model.
Why the model can't separate them
37% 1. FSV Mainz 05 to win
- Attack
- 5th vs 3rd
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 attack v Bayer 04 Leverkusen defence
- Defence
- 7th vs 2nd
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 defence v Bayer 04 Leverkusen attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.47 vs +0.86
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.65 – 1.64
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 v Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | 1. FSV Mainz 05 | Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 2.24 · 3rd from 4 matches | (better) 2.48 · 2nd from 4 matches |
| xGA / match | 1.55 · 7th from 4 matches | (better) 0.94 · 4th from 4 matches |
| xGD / match | +0.69 · 6th from 4 matches | (better) +1.54 · 2nd from 4 matches |
| xPts / match | 1.82 · 6th from 4 matches | (better) 2.34 · 2nd from 4 matches |
| Last 6 xGD / match | +0.47 | (better) +0.86 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 31% of the model's distribution.
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 clean sheet
- 17%
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 2+ goals
- 51%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 34%
- Both teams to score: no
- 30%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 12.0%
- 2:1
- 9.4%
- 1:2
- 9.3%
Check your bookmaker's price
The prices above are one bookmaker's. Type your own to check it against the model.
How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 sample
- 20 matches
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · 1. FSV Mainz 05
- 2 matches
- Away xG sample · Bayer 04 Leverkusen
- 2 matches
- Computed
- Saturday, 03/10/2026 at 21:30
- Odds updated
- 1 minute ago
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.