RB Leipzig xG 2026/2027: expected goals, xGA & xPts per match

RB Leipzig xG and xGA per match

Attack

2.22 xG per match

Attack (xG per match) across Bundesliga, best first
Rank	Club	xG per match
#1	FC Bayern München	3.14
#2	Bayer 04 Leverkusen	2.48
#3	1. FSV Mainz 05	2.24
#4	SC Freiburg	2.22
#5	RB Leipzig	2.22
#6	Eintracht Frankfurt	1.98
#7	1. FC Köln	1.97
#8	VfB Stuttgart	1.89
#9	TSG Hoffenheim	1.83
=10	Borussia M'gladbach	1.72
=10	FC Augsburg	1.72
#12	Borussia Dortmund	1.66
#13	SV 07 Elversberg	1.38
#14	SV Werder Bremen	1.33
#15	FC Schalke 04	1.32
#16	1. FC Union Berlin	1.13
#17	Hamburger SV	0.91
#18	SC Paderborn 07	0.67

League avg: 1.77
Total: 8.86 4 matches

Defence

1.35 xGA per match

#5/18

Defence (xGA per match) across Bundesliga, best first
Rank	Club	xGA per match
#1	FC Bayern München	0.57
#2	SC Freiburg	0.91
#3	Borussia Dortmund	0.93
#4	Bayer 04 Leverkusen	0.94
#5	RB Leipzig	1.35
#6	SC Paderborn 07	1.43
#7	1. FSV Mainz 05	1.55
#8	SV Werder Bremen	1.55
#9	TSG Hoffenheim	1.70
#10	1. FC Köln	1.98
#11	SV 07 Elversberg	2.02
#12	Hamburger SV	2.04
#13	Eintracht Frankfurt	2.05
#14	FC Schalke 04	2.11
#15	FC Augsburg	2.30
#16	1. FC Union Berlin	2.70
#17	VfB Stuttgart	2.75
#18	Borussia M'gladbach	2.92

League avg: 1.77
Total: 5.41 4 matches

xG difference

+0.86 xGD per match

#4/18

xG difference (xGD per match) across Bundesliga, best first
Rank	Club	xGD per match
#1	FC Bayern München	+2.57
#2	Bayer 04 Leverkusen	+1.54
#3	SC Freiburg	+1.31
#4	RB Leipzig	+0.86
#5	Borussia Dortmund	+0.73
#6	1. FSV Mainz 05	+0.69
#7	TSG Hoffenheim	+0.13
#8	1. FC Köln	-0.01
#9	Eintracht Frankfurt	-0.07
#10	SV Werder Bremen	-0.22
#11	FC Augsburg	-0.58
#12	SV 07 Elversberg	-0.64
#13	SC Paderborn 07	-0.77
#14	FC Schalke 04	-0.79
#15	VfB Stuttgart	-0.86
#16	Hamburger SV	-1.12
#17	Borussia M'gladbach	-1.20
#18	1. FC Union Berlin	-1.57

League avg: 0.00
Total: +3.45 4 matches

Expected points Model

1.85 xPts per match

#5/18

Expected points (xPts per match) across Bundesliga, best first
Rank	Club	xPts per match
#1	FC Bayern München	2.76
#2	Bayer 04 Leverkusen	2.34
#3	SC Freiburg	2.26
#4	Borussia Dortmund	1.95
#5	RB Leipzig	1.85
#6	1. FSV Mainz 05	1.82
#7	TSG Hoffenheim	1.48
#8	1. FC Köln	1.40
#9	Eintracht Frankfurt	1.36
#10	SV Werder Bremen	1.16
#11	VfB Stuttgart	1.01
#12	FC Augsburg	0.99
#13	SV 07 Elversberg	0.98
#14	FC Schalke 04	0.92
#15	Borussia M'gladbach	0.83
#16	SC Paderborn 07	0.72
#17	Hamburger SV	0.71
#18	1. FC Union Berlin	0.70

League avg: 1.40
Total: 7.41 vs 6 actual pts

Early-season figures: after 4 matches, per-match rates can move quickly.

What the xG says

RB Leipzig's underlying numbers are among the best in Bundesliga. They rank #4 for xG difference at +0.86 per match, driven by both high shot volume and elite chance quality. After only 4 matches, treat every figure here as provisional.

Actual vs expected

Measure Actual Expected

Goals vs xG

9 8.86 +0.14 Too early to read

Goals conceded vs xGA

5 5.41 -0.41 Too early to read

Points vs xPts Model

6 7.41 -1.41 Too early to read

Select a row to chart it across the season.

Goals minus xG, match by match

RB Leipzig are 0.14 goals above their xG after 4 matches. The gap was widest at +1.11, against Hamburger SV on Sun 13/09.

Goals: 9
xG: 8.86
Gap: +0.14

RB Leipzig: Goals vs xG, the gap after every match with xG
Date	Opponent	Goals	xG	Match gap	Running gap
Sat 29/08	Borussia M'gladbach	3	3.96	-0.96	-0.96
Sat 05/09	SV Werder Bremen	1	1.50	-0.50	-1.46
Sun 13/09	Hamburger SV	5	2.43	+2.57	+1.11
Sun 20/09	Bayer 04 Leverkusen	0	0.97	-0.97	+0.14

Conceded minus xGA, match by match

RB Leipzig have conceded 0.41 fewer than their xGA after 4 matches. The gap was widest at -1.09, against Borussia M'gladbach on Sat 29/08.

Conceded: 5
xGA: 5.41
Gap: -0.41

RB Leipzig: Goals conceded vs xGA, the gap after every match with xG
Date	Opponent	Conceded	xGA	Match gap	Running gap
Sat 29/08	Borussia M'gladbach	0	1.09	-1.09	-1.09
Sat 05/09	SV Werder Bremen	3	0.95	+2.05	+0.96
Sun 13/09	Hamburger SV	0	1.10	-1.10	-0.14
Sun 20/09	Bayer 04 Leverkusen	2	2.27	-0.27	-0.41

Points minus xPts, match by match

RB Leipzig are 1.41 points below their xPts after 4 matches. The gap was widest at -1.59, against SV Werder Bremen on Sat 05/09.

Points: 6
xPts: 7.41
Gap: -1.41

RB Leipzig: Points vs xPts, the gap after every match with xG
Date	Opponent	Points	xPts	Match gap	Running gap
Sat 29/08	Borussia M'gladbach	3	2.79	+0.21	+0.21
Sat 05/09	SV Werder Bremen	0	1.80	-1.80	-1.59
Sun 13/09	Hamburger SV	3	2.30	+0.70	-0.89
Sun 20/09	Bayer 04 Leverkusen	0	0.52	-0.52	-1.41

Goals vs xG ranking → Expected points ranking →

RB Leipzig xG trend

Current form +1.12 npxGD per match

All 4 matches with xG so far — the window fills at 6.

Out-created the opponent in 3 of 4 matches. The only negative was against Bayer 04 Leverkusen on Sun 20/09 (-1.35).

npxG · last 4: 2.35
npxGA · last 4: 1.24

RB Leipzig: non-penalty xG, xGA and their difference in each match, with the season's average so far
Date	Opponent	npxG	npxGA	npxGD	Avg so far
Sat 29/08	Borussia M'gladbach	4.60	0.97	+3.63	+3.63
Sat 05/09	SV Werder Bremen	1.57	0.84	+0.73	+2.18
Sun 13/09	Hamburger SV	2.39	0.94	+1.45	+1.94
Sun 20/09	Bayer 04 Leverkusen	0.85	2.20	-1.35	+1.12

Each bar is one match's non-penalty xG minus the non-penalty xG against; the line is that difference averaged over the season up to each match, and it finishes on the dashed season average — 2.35 npxG and 1.24 npxGA per match. Current form is the same difference over the last 6 matches with xG.

Form ranking →

Strength of schedule

Season so far: number 12 hardest of 18 in Bundesliga; −0.09 xG vs league average; Over 4 league matches

Opponents behind the figures

Season so far

−0.09 xG vs league average · over 4 matches · number 12 hardest of 18

Bayer 04 Leverkusen Away +0.59
Hamburger SV Home −0.47
SV Werder Bremen Away −0.09
Borussia M'gladbach Home −0.39

League schedule strength → How this is calculated →

RB Leipzig shots and chance quality

High volume, high quality. RB Leipzig take 18.8 shots a match (league 15.5) at 0.13 npxG a shot (league 0.11), #5 in Bundesliga for volume and #3 for quality. 69% of their shots come from inside the box (league 68%), and set pieces produce 36% of their npxG (league 26%).

Attack

Shot volume

18.8 shots per match

#5/18

Shot volume (shots per match) across Bundesliga, best first
Rank	Club	shots per match
#1	Bayer 04 Leverkusen	22.5
#2	FC Bayern München	21.8
=3	SC Freiburg	19.0
=3	TSG Hoffenheim	19.0
#5	RB Leipzig	18.8
#6	1. FSV Mainz 05	18.3
#7	1. FC Köln	17.3
#8	Borussia M'gladbach	16.5
#9	VfB Stuttgart	15.3
#10	Borussia Dortmund	14.5
#11	FC Augsburg	14.0
=12	Eintracht Frankfurt	13.8
=12	SV Werder Bremen	13.8
=14	1. FC Union Berlin	11.8
=14	FC Schalke 04	11.8
=14	SC Paderborn 07	11.8
#17	SV 07 Elversberg	10.3
#18	Hamburger SV	9.5

League avg: 15.5
Total: 75 shots from 4 matches

Chance quality

0.13 npxG per shot

#3/18

Chance quality (npxG per shot) across Bundesliga, best first
Rank	Club	npxG per shot
#1	SV 07 Elversberg	0.14
#2	FC Bayern München	0.13
#3	RB Leipzig	0.13
#4	FC Augsburg	0.12
#5	Eintracht Frankfurt	0.12
#6	1. FSV Mainz 05	0.12
#7	Borussia Dortmund	0.12
#8	FC Schalke 04	0.11
#9	VfB Stuttgart	0.11
#10	SC Freiburg	0.11
#11	Bayer 04 Leverkusen	0.11
#12	1. FC Köln	0.11
#13	1. FC Union Berlin	0.10
#14	Hamburger SV	0.10
#15	TSG Hoffenheim	0.08
#16	SV Werder Bremen	0.08
#17	Borussia M'gladbach	0.08
#18	SC Paderborn 07	0.06

League avg: 0.11
Total: 9.41 npxG from 75 shots

Defence

Shots allowed

13.8 shots per match

#6/18

Shots allowed (shots per match) across Bundesliga, best first
Rank	Club	shots per match
#1	FC Bayern München	5.8
#2	Bayer 04 Leverkusen	9.0
#3	SC Freiburg	9.5
#4	Borussia Dortmund	12.0
#5	1. FSV Mainz 05	12.5
#6	RB Leipzig	13.8
#7	TSG Hoffenheim	14.5
#8	SV Werder Bremen	15.0
#9	1. FC Köln	15.8
#10	FC Schalke 04	17.5
#11	VfB Stuttgart	18.0
=12	Hamburger SV	18.5
=12	SC Paderborn 07	18.5
=14	1. FC Union Berlin	18.8
=14	Borussia M'gladbach	18.8
#16	Eintracht Frankfurt	19.0
#17	FC Augsburg	20.8
#18	SV 07 Elversberg	21.8

League avg: 15.5
Total: 55 shots allowed from 4 matches

Chance quality allowed

0.09 npxGA per shot

#6/18

Chance quality allowed (npxGA per shot) across Bundesliga, best first
Rank	Club	npxGA per shot
#1	Borussia Dortmund	0.07
#2	SC Freiburg	0.07
#3	SC Paderborn 07	0.08
#4	SV 07 Elversberg	0.09
#5	SV Werder Bremen	0.09
#6	RB Leipzig	0.09
#7	FC Augsburg	0.10
#8	Bayer 04 Leverkusen	0.10
#9	1. FSV Mainz 05	0.10
#10	Eintracht Frankfurt	0.10
#11	FC Bayern München	0.10
#12	1. FC Köln	0.11
#13	TSG Hoffenheim	0.12
#14	Hamburger SV	0.12
#15	FC Schalke 04	0.12
#16	1. FC Union Berlin	0.13
#17	VfB Stuttgart	0.15
#18	Borussia M'gladbach	0.16

League avg: 0.11
Total: 4.95 npxGA from 55 shots

Shot profile

Shot location

69% inside the box

League avg 68%

From 52 of 75 shots over 4 matches

Early-season figure: after 4 matches, the share can move quickly.

Shots allowed, location

65% allowed inside the box

League avg 68%

From 36 of 55 shots allowed over 4 matches

Early-season figure: after 4 matches, the share can move quickly.

Where the npxG comes from

64% open play · 36% set pieces

League avg 26% set pieces

From 3.4 of 9.4 npxG over 4 matches

Early-season figure: after 4 matches, the share can move quickly.

Where the npxG allowed comes from

85% open play · 15% set pieces

League avg 26% set pieces

From 0.8 of 5.0 npxG allowed over 4 matches

Early-season figure: after 4 matches, the share can move quickly.

How the shot figures are made →

RB Leipzig home and away xG

RB Leipzig per-match figures at home and away
Measure	Home only 2 matches with xG	Away only 2 matches with xG
Matches	2	2
xG / match	3.20	1.24
xGA / match	1.10	1.61
xGD / match	+2.10	-0.38
xPts / match Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →	2.54	1.16

Every figure divides by that half's matches with xG. A half with fewer than 3 matches with xG is muted.

Every RB Leipzig match by xG

Window

Season Last 10 Last 5

Venue

All Home Away

Sort

Date xGD

Away this season

Matches: 2
xG / match: 1.23
xGA / match: 1.61
xGD / match: -0.38
Points: 0 of 6

Date Opponent Score xG Chances xGA xGD xPts Model

Newest first. The dot is xG and the ring is xGA, on one scale from 0 to 3.00. Best and weakest underlying mark the highest and lowest xGD once 5 matches have xG. Against the chances marks a win with xGD of −1.00 or lower, or a loss with +1.00 or higher. P marks a side with at least 0.50 xG from penalties.

Every result, all competitions →

RB Leipzig in Bundesliga

Attack

xG / match #5 of 18
Shots / match #5 of 18
Chance quality #3 of 18
Home xG #2 of 18
Away xG #12 of 18

Defence

xGA / match #5 of 18
Shots allowed #6 of 18
Chance quality allowed #6 of 18

Overall

About the data

xG data: Provided by TheStatsAPI, and stored as published.
Derived metrics: xGD, per-match rates, rankings and rolling averages are calculated from the match data.
Model metrics: xPts is produced by our probability model.

Learn how our xG analytics work →

RB Leipzig expected goals (xG) 2026/2027

RB Leipzig xG and xGA per match

What the xG says

Actual vs expected

Goals minus xG, match by match

Conceded minus xGA, match by match

Points minus xPts, match by match

RB Leipzig xG trend

Strength of schedule

RB Leipzig shots and chance quality

Attack

Defence

Shot profile

RB Leipzig home and away xG

Every RB Leipzig match by xG

RB Leipzig in Bundesliga

Attack

Defence

Overall

About the data