Sunday, 30/08/2026 at 15:30
Full timeSC Freiburg 4:1 SV Werder Bremen
SC Freiburg were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 40%. They won 4–1. The biggest difference was SV Werder Bremen's attack: 0.48 xG against 1.20 projected (−0.72). SC Freiburg produced 1.94 xG against 1.43 projected (+0.51).
Goals
- 29' Yuito Suzuki SC Freiburg · 0.31 xG chance 1–0
- 45' Igor Matanović SC Freiburg · 0.02 xG chance 2–0
- 48' Yuito Suzuki SC Freiburg · 0.30 xG chance 3–0
- 55' Yuito Suzuki SC Freiburg · 0.77 xG chance 4–0
- 76' Dariusz Stalmach SV Werder Bremen · 0.12 xG chance 4–1
The model against the result
- SC Freiburg
- 40% What happened
- Draw
- 31%
- SV Werder Bremen
- 29%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
SV Werder Bremen produced 0.72 xG less than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 19
- 9
- On target
- 5
- 3
- Inside the box
- 8
- 6
- xG per shot
- 0.10
- 0.05
- Open play xG
- 1.27
- 0.29
- Set-piece xG
- 0.66
- 0.19
- Penalties
- —
- —
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.94 for SC Freiburg.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
28 shots · 2.41 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- SC Freiburg
- SV Werder Bremen
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
0.95 xG created 1.59 xGA
- W 0.56 created, 0.55 conceded against 1. FSV Mainz 05
- W 1.62 created, 1.58 conceded against 1. FC Heidenheim
- L 0.76 created, 3.37 conceded against Borussia Dortmund
- D 0.94 created, 0.82 conceded against VfL Wolfsburg
- L 0.41 created, 1.98 conceded against Hamburger SV
- W 1.41 created, 1.24 conceded against RB Leipzig
1.10 xG created 2.09 xGA
- L 0.99 created, 3.33 conceded against 1. FC Köln
- W 1.74 created, 0.57 conceded against Hamburger SV
- D 0.93 created, 1.82 conceded against VfB Stuttgart
- L 1.35 created, 2.57 conceded against FC Augsburg
- L 1.07 created, 1.52 conceded against TSG Hoffenheim
- L 0.49 created, 2.74 conceded against Borussia Dortmund
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
3 opportunities flagged0 won3 lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| SV Werder Bremen to win | 4.20 | +13.7% | Lost |
| Draw | 3.70 | +6.8% | Lost |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.10 | +4.4% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SC Freiburg | 40.3% | 51.5% | −11.2 pp | 2.48 |
| Draw | 30.5% | 25.8% | +4.7 pp | 3.28 |
| SV Werder Bremen | 29.1% | 22.7% | +6.4 pp | 3.43 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | 59.1% | 55.7% | +3.4 pp | 1.69 |
| Both teams not to score | 40.9% | 44.3% | −3.4 pp | 2.45 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78.1% | 78.0% | +0.1 pp | 1.28 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 21.9% | 22.0% | −0.1 pp | 4.57 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.3% | 54.9% | −4.6 pp | 1.99 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 49.7% | 45.1% | +4.6 pp | 2.01 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- SC Freiburg sample
- 20 matches
- SV Werder Bremen sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 1 day before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 5 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.