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Fixtures

Millwall fixtures 2026/2027

Millwall · Championship 2026/2027 →

What Millwall have left to play in Championship 2026/2027, soonest first. Open a match for the projection behind it and the prices standing against it.

Fixture outlook

7 matches ahead in Championship

Run difficulty 2.6 of 5 Balanced
Projected xG / match 1.44
Projected xGA / match 1.23
Projected xPts 10.5 / 21

Every club's remaining calendar is a different length, so there is nothing of equal length to place the whole of this one against.

What the fixtures say

The run of 7 matches ahead of Millwall in Championship rates 2.6 of 5 for difficulty, which the scale calls Balanced. 3 of them rate easier than balanced, and nothing in the run rates harder. The model expects 1.44 projected xG a match from them and 10.5 of the 21 points the priced fixtures could return. The hardest of them is Birmingham City away, banded 3 of 5 — Balanced, against an attack rated 61/99 and a defence rated 63/99.

The run at a glance

One cell per fixture in the run, soonest first, with its difficulty band under the opponent: 1 is the most favourable and 5 the least. An empty slot is a fixture with no band, and the cell says why.

Kindest fixture

Derby County home Sat 31/10

2 Favourable Opponent: attack 38/99, defence 38/99

Projected xG 1.73 – 1.05 Millwall win 52%

Toughest fixture

Birmingham City away Tue 03/11

3 Balanced Opponent: attack 61/99, defence 63/99

Projected xG 1.25 – 1.50 Millwall win 29%

Championship publishes only its next few rounds, so the list stops here. The rest of the season is added as the league schedules it.

The band is how hard the model rates each match, from 1 (easiest) to 5 (hardest). Opponent attack and defence use the same 1–99 scale as Team Strength, where 50 is the average side in Championship.

Fixture difficulty in Championship

Reads each matchup for Millwall: the band is cut from the model's chances of Millwall winning and losing the match, so Millwall's own strength and home advantage are in it.

2.6 Millwall's run 3.0 the competition's average

Every club's remaining calendar is a different length, so there is nothing of equal length to place the whole of this one against.

Upcoming opponent strength

tied number 7 hardest of 24 in Championship

+0.06 xG vs league average

Over 5 upcoming league fixtures

Reads the opponents alone, whoever plays them: each one's fitted xG margin against Championship's average club, with no venue and nothing of Millwall's own strength in it.

Opponents behind the figure

Upcoming

+0.06 xG vs league average · over 5 fixtures · tied number 7 hardest of 24

  1. Portsmouth Away +0.11
  2. Derby County Home −0.21
  3. Birmingham City Away +0.22
  4. West Bromwich Albion Away −0.01
  5. Queens Park Rangers Home +0.20

League schedule strength → How this is calculated →

About these numbers

What is published, what is worked out, and what is the model's

Published by the fixtures feed and stored as it arrives: the kickoff time, the two clubs, the competition, and whether a match is still scheduled.

Worked out here from stored figures: each opponent's attack and defence on a 1–99 scale, where 50 is the average side in Championship and a higher score is a stronger side at both ends; the difficulty band, cut from the model's chances of winning and losing each fixture; and everything the outlook, the strip and the fixture difficulty block add up from the rows — the run's mean band, its averages and totals, the counts they were taken over, the placings and the competition's average.

Worked out here from the model's ratings alone: the Upcoming opponent strength block, the mean of the next 5 opponents' fitted xG margins against the league's average club, whoever plays them, and its rank among the competition's clubs.

The model's output, for matches nobody has played yet: projected xG and xGA, the chances of a win, a draw and a loss, and xPts.

Projected xG is what the model expects a side to create in a match still to come. It is not the xG on the Results page, which measures the chances a side actually had.

xPts is what those three chances are worth in points: 3 times the chance of a win plus the chance of a draw, so 3 is the most a single fixture can be worth.

The difficulty band runs from 1, the most favourable fixture, to 5, the least favourable — so the lower a run's difficulty, the kinder the run.

How the model and every figure here are made →

How the model works →

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