Portsmouth 3:2 Sheffield United: xG & match report · Championship

Wednesday, 14/10/2026 at 20:45

Full time

Match report · Championship

Portsmouth Home 2.22 xG · 24 shots

Sheffield United Away 2.01 xG · 11 shots

32 The chances were evenly matched

Portsmouth were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 50%. They won 3–2. The biggest difference was Sheffield United's attack: 2.01 xG against 0.83 projected (+1.18). Portsmouth produced 2.22 xG against 1.44 projected (+0.78).

Goals

41' Zak Swanson Portsmouth · 0.02 xG chance 1–0
54' Adrian Segečić Portsmouth · 0.94 xG chance 2–0
59' Japhet Tanganga Sheffield United · 0.05 xG chance 2–1
67' Thomas Cannon Sheffield United · 0.47 xG chance 2–2
89' Ebou Adams Portsmouth · 0.14 xG chance 3–2

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Portsmouth: 50% What happened
Draw: 31%
Sheffield United: 19%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Portsmouth 1.44 2.22 +0.78

Sheffield United 0.83 2.01 +1.18

Sheffield United produced 1.18 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Portsmouth Sheffield United

Shots: 24; 11
On target: 7; 4
Inside the box: 15; 8
xG per shot: 0.09; 0.18
Open play xG: 1.75; 0.45
Set-piece xG: 0.49; 1.48
Penalties: —; —

Portsmouth's shots add up to 2.23 xG and Sheffield United's to 1.93; the published figures are 2.22 and 2.01.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

35 shots · 4.17 xG

Hover or tap a shot, or step through them with the arrows.

Portsmouth
Sheffield United
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Portsmouth

1.24 xG created 0.87 xGA

L 1.37 created, 0.61 conceded against Bristol City
L 0.84 created, 0.55 conceded against Derby County
W 2.07 created, 1.37 conceded against Cardiff City
D 0.40 created, 0.82 conceded against Charlton Athletic
D 1.60 created, 0.59 conceded against Blackburn Rovers
L 1.18 created, 1.28 conceded against Southampton

Sheffield United

0.91 xG created 1.68 xGA

W 2.21 created, 1.91 conceded against Bolton Wanderers
L 0.79 created, 3.04 conceded against Norwich City
W 0.66 created, 1.62 conceded against Blackburn Rovers
L 0.63 created, 1.57 conceded against Wolverhampton
L 0.48 created, 0.54 conceded against Stoke City
W 0.68 created, 1.39 conceded against Lincoln City

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Portsmouth: 0 won · 0 drawn · 2 lost

Pre-match model & market record

6 qualified edges flagged1 won5 lost

Lost
Won
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Portsmouth against Sheffield United before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Sheffield United not to score	3.00	+22.2%	Lost
Portsmouth to win	2.30	+15.8%	Won
Sheffield United at most 1 goal	1.40	+12.3%	Lost
Under 2.5 goals	1.80	+7.3%	Lost
Under 1.5 goals	3.50	+3.2%	Lost
Both teams not to score	2.00	+2.8%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Portsmouth	50.3%	40.6%	+9.7 pp	1.99
Draw	30.9%	29.2%	+1.7 pp	3.23
Sheffield United	18.7%	30.2%	−11.4 pp	5.33

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Portsmouth to score	79.0%	75.0%	+4.0 pp	1.27
Portsmouth not to score	21.0%	25.0%	−4.0 pp	4.76
Sheffield United to score	59.3%	68.7%	−9.5 pp	1.69
Sheffield United not to score	40.7%	31.3%	+9.5 pp	2.45
Both teams to score	48.6%	53.7%	−5.0 pp	2.06
Both teams not to score	51.4%	46.3%	+5.0 pp	1.95
Portsmouth 2+ goals	43.5%	42.3%	+1.2 pp	2.30
Portsmouth at most 1 goal	56.5%	57.7%	−1.2 pp	1.77
Sheffield United 2+ goals	19.8%	33.7%	−13.9 pp	5.05
Sheffield United at most 1 goal	80.2%	66.3%	+13.9 pp	1.25
Over 1.5 goals	70.5%	72.9%	−2.4 pp	1.42
Under 1.5 goals	29.5%	27.1%	+2.4 pp	3.39
Over 2.5 goals	40.4%	47.4%	−7.0 pp	2.48
Under 2.5 goals	59.6%	52.6%	+7.0 pp	1.68

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Portsmouth sample: 20 matches
Sheffield United sample: 20 matches
Computed: 2 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 2 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.