Saturday, 28/11/2026 at 16:00
37d 13h to kick-offWrexham – Portsmouth
Model updated 22 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Wrexham
- 34%
- Draw
- 35%
- Portsmouth
- 31%
| Wrexham | Draw | Portsmouth | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.97 | 2.85 | 3.19 |
- Total goals
- 2.07
- Over 2.5 goals
- 34%
- Both teams to score
- 47%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model can't separate them
34% Wrexham to win
- Attack
- 21st vs 3rd
- Wrexham attack v Portsmouth defence
- Defence
- 7th vs 13th
- Wrexham defence v Portsmouth attack
- Recent xG form
- -0.46 vs +0.21
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.06 – 1.02
- Wrexham v Portsmouth
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Wrexham | Portsmouth |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.12 · 19th | (better) 1.35 · 12th |
| xGA / match | 1.18 · joint 5th | (better) 1.17 · 4th |
| xGD / match | -0.05 · 12th | (better) +0.18 · 10th |
| xPts / match | 1.40 · 12th | (better) 1.51 · 10th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -0.46 | (better) +0.21 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 42% of the model's distribution.
- Wrexham clean sheet
- 33%
- Wrexham 2+ goals
- 29%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 66%
- Both teams to score: no
- 53%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 17.7%
- 0:0
- 12.7%
- 1:0
- 11.2%
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How the edge is calculated
Edge is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Wrexham sample
- 20 matches
- Portsmouth sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Wrexham
- 6 matches
- Away xG sample · Portsmouth
- 6 matches
- Computed
- Thursday, 22/10/2026 at 00:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.