Tuesday, 03/11/2026 at 20:45
12d 23h to kick-offPortsmouth – Swansea City
Model updated 21 October, 21:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Portsmouth
- 38%
- Draw
- 34%
- Swansea City
- 29%
| Portsmouth | Draw | Swansea City | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.66 | 2.97 | 3.47 |
- Total goals
- 2.22
- Over 2.5 goals
- 39%
- Both teams to score
- 51%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Portsmouth
38% Portsmouth to win
- Attack
- 13th vs 5th
- Portsmouth attack v Swansea City defence
- Defence
- 3rd vs 11th
- Portsmouth defence v Swansea City attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.21 vs +0.30
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.19 – 1.03
- Portsmouth v Swansea City
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Portsmouth | Swansea City |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.35 · 12th | (better) 1.60 · 8th |
| xGA / match | 1.17 · 4th | (better) 1.14 · 3rd |
| xGD / match | +0.18 · 10th | (better) +0.46 · 7th |
| xPts / match | 1.51 · 10th | (better) 1.63 · 7th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | +0.21 | (better) +0.30 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 39% of the model's distribution.
- Portsmouth clean sheet
- 33%
- Portsmouth 2+ goals
- 34%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 61%
- Both teams to score: no
- 49%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 17.3%
- 0:0
- 11.0%
- 1:0
- 10.7%
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How the edge is calculated
Edge is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
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Model details
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- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Portsmouth sample
- 20 matches
- Swansea City sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Portsmouth
- 5 matches
- Away xG sample · Swansea City
- 5 matches
- Computed
- Wednesday, 21/10/2026 at 21:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.