Tuesday, 24/11/2026 at 20:45
33d 16h to kick-offPortsmouth – West Ham United
Model updated 22 October, 03:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Portsmouth
- 31%
- Draw
- 32%
- West Ham United
- 37%
| Portsmouth | Draw | West Ham United | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 3.23 | 3.15 | 2.68 |
- Total goals
- 2.48
- Over 2.5 goals
- 46%
- Both teams to score
- 56%
Both teams have at least 10 matches in the model window, but at least one has fewer than the full 20.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans West Ham United
37% West Ham United to win
- Attack
- 2nd vs 3rd
- West Ham United attack v Portsmouth defence
- Defence
- 4th vs 13th
- West Ham United defence v Portsmouth attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.92 vs +0.21
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.18 – 1.30
- Portsmouth v West Ham United
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Portsmouth | West Ham United |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.35 · 12th | (better) 2.16 · 1st |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.17 · 4th | 1.18 · joint 5th |
| xGD / match | +0.18 · 10th | (better) +0.99 · 1st |
| xPts / match | 1.51 · 10th | (better) 1.89 · 3rd |
| Last 6 xGD / match | +0.21 | (better) +0.92 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 35% of the model's distribution.
- West Ham United clean sheet
- 28%
- West Ham United 2+ goals
- 38%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 54%
- Both teams to score: no
- 44%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 16.3%
- 1:2
- 9.7%
- 0:0
- 8.8%
Check your bookmaker's price
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How the edge is calculated
Edge is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Portsmouth sample
- 20 matches
- West Ham United sample
- 11 matches
- Home xG sample · Portsmouth
- 5 matches
- Away xG sample · West Ham United
- 6 matches
- Computed
- Thursday, 22/10/2026 at 03:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.