Friday, 16/10/2026 at 20:00
12d 18h to kick-offALS Omonia – Anorthosis Famagusta
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- ALS Omonia
- 37%
- Draw
- 31%
- Anorthosis Famagusta
- 32%
| ALS Omonia | Draw | Anorthosis Famagusta | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.71 | 3.22 | 3.12 |
- Total goals
- 2.59
- Over 2.5 goals
- 49%
- Both teams to score
- 59%
One of these teams has only 3 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model can't separate them
37% ALS Omonia to win
- Attack
- 8th vs 10th
- ALS Omonia attack v Anorthosis Famagusta defence
- Defence
- 13th vs 14th
- ALS Omonia defence v Anorthosis Famagusta attack
- Recent xG form
- -0.63 vs -0.54
- xGD per match, last 3
- Projected goals
- 1.34 – 1.25
- ALS Omonia v Anorthosis Famagusta
The fit has seen one of these two sides in only 3 matches, so read all of this as a rough guide.
How the model arrived here →Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | ALS Omonia | Anorthosis Famagusta |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 1.52 · 7th from 3 matches | 1.14 · 14th from 4 matches |
| xGA / match | 2.15 · 13th from 3 matches | (better) 1.55 · 8th from 4 matches |
| xGD / match | -0.63 · 12th from 3 matches | (better) -0.41 · 11th from 4 matches |
| xPts / match | 1.01 · 12th from 3 matches | (better) 1.09 · 10th from 4 matches |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -0.63 from 3 matches | (better) -0.54 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 35% of the model's distribution.
- ALS Omonia clean sheet
- 26%
- ALS Omonia 2+ goals
- 40%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 51%
- Both teams to score: no
- 41%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 15.9%
- 2:1
- 9.9%
- 1:2
- 9.1%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
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Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- ALS Omonia sample
- 3 matches
- Anorthosis Famagusta sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · ALS Omonia
- 2 matches
- Away xG sample · Anorthosis Famagusta
- 3 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
Warnings
- ALS Omonia has only 3 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.