Apollon Limassol 2:2 APOEL Nicosia: xG & match report · Cypriot First Division

Saturday, 19/09/2026 at 18:00

Full time

Match report · Cypriot First Division

Apollon Limassol Home 0.37 xG

APOEL Nicosia Away 1.37 xG

22 APOEL Nicosia had the better chances, but it finished level

Apollon Limassol were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 42%. It finished 2–2. The biggest difference was Apollon Limassol's attack: 0.37 xG against 1.22 projected (−0.85). APOEL Nicosia produced 1.37 xG against 0.90 projected (+0.47).

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Apollon Limassol: 42%
Draw: 34% What happened
APOEL Nicosia: 24%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Apollon Limassol 1.22 0.37 -0.85

APOEL Nicosia 0.90 1.37 +0.47

Apollon Limassol produced 0.85 xG less than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Apollon Limassol APOEL Nicosia

Shots: 6; 12
On target: 3; 4
Inside the box: 3; 6
xG per shot: 0.06; 0.11

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Apollon Limassol

1.38 xG created 1.37 xGA

L 1.38 created, 1.13 conceded against AEK Larnaca
W 1.38 created, 0.10 conceded against APOEL Nicosia
W 1.14 created, 2.30 conceded against Aris Limassol
D 1.60 created, 2.39 conceded against Aris Limassol
W 2.33 created, 1.02 conceded against Anorthosis Famagusta
D 0.42 created, 1.30 conceded against Omonia Nicosia

APOEL Nicosia

1.13 xG created 1.12 xGA

L 1.28 created, 1.46 conceded against Aris Limassol
L 0.10 created, 1.38 conceded against Apollon Limassol
L 0.86 created, 1.57 conceded against Omonia Nicosia
L 1.51 created, 0.44 conceded against AEK Larnaca
W 2.45 created, 0.08 conceded against AEL Limassol
L 0.56 created, 1.81 conceded against Anorthosis Famagusta

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Apollon Limassol: 3 won · 0 drawn · 1 lost

Pre-match model & market record

3 opportunities flagged1 won2 lost

Lost
Lost
Won

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Apollon Limassol against APOEL Nicosia before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Under 2.5 goals	1.85	+18.6%	Lost
Under 1.5 goals	3.40	+12.3%	Lost
Draw	3.30	+11.8%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Apollon Limassol	41.9%	45.9%	−4.1 pp	2.39
Draw	33.9%	27.8%	+6.1 pp	2.95
APOEL Nicosia	24.2%	26.2%	−2.0 pp	4.12

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Both teams to score	47.7%	51.5%	−3.7 pp	2.09
Both teams not to score	52.3%	48.5%	+3.7 pp	1.91
Over 1.5 goals	67.0%	72.3%	−5.4 pp	1.49
Under 1.5 goals	33.0%	27.7%	+5.4 pp	3.03
Over 2.5 goals	35.9%	48.7%	−12.8 pp	2.79
Under 2.5 goals	64.1%	51.3%	+12.8 pp	1.56

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Apollon Limassol sample: 20 matches
APOEL Nicosia sample: 20 matches
Computed: 9 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 9 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.