Karmiotissa Polemidion 1:1 Omonia Aradippou: xG & match report · Cypriot First Division

Saturday, 12/09/2026 at 18:00

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Match report · Cypriot First Division

Karmiotissa Polemidion Home 1.33 xG

Omonia Aradippou Away 2.83 xG

11 Omonia Aradippou had the better chances, but it finished level

Karmiotissa Polemidion were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 44%. It finished 1–1. The biggest difference was Omonia Aradippou's attack: 2.83 xG against 1.24 projected (+1.59). Karmiotissa Polemidion produced 1.33 xG against 1.58 projected (−0.25).

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Karmiotissa Polemidion: 44%
Draw: 29% What happened
Omonia Aradippou: 27%

Data coverage One of these teams has only 1 match in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Karmiotissa Polemidion 1.58 1.33 -0.25

Omonia Aradippou 1.24 2.83 +1.59

Omonia Aradippou produced 1.59 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Karmiotissa Polemidion Omonia Aradippou

Shots: 11; 19
On target: 5; 2
Inside the box: 4; 12
xG per shot: 0.12; 0.15

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Karmiotissa Polemidion

1.83 xG created 2.53 xGA

L 2.20 created, 2.78 conceded against Pafos FC
D 1.45 created, 2.27 conceded against ALS Omonia

Omonia Aradippou

1.37 xG created 1.75 xGA

D 2.09 created, 2.53 conceded against Enosis Neon Ypsona FC
L 0.79 created, 0.52 conceded against Olympiakos Nicosia
W 1.87 created, 1.54 conceded against Akritas Chlorakas
W 1.55 created, 1.58 conceded against Ethnikos Achnas
D 0.95 created, 2.96 conceded against Omonia Nicosia
W 0.94 created, 1.35 conceded against Enosis Neon Ypsona FC

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Pre-match model & market record

6 opportunities flagged3 won3 lost

Lost
Lost
Won
Won
Lost
Won

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Karmiotissa Polemidion against Omonia Aradippou before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Karmiotissa Polemidion 2+ goals	2.75	+33.3%	Lost
Karmiotissa Polemidion to win	3.00	+31.1%	Lost
Karmiotissa Polemidion to score	1.40	+14.7%	Won
Both teams to score	1.83	+14.1%	Won
Over 2.5 goals	2.00	+10.4%	Lost
Over 1.5 goals	1.30	+5.8%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Karmiotissa Polemidion	43.7%	30.6%	+13.1 pp	2.29
Draw	29.0%	28.7%	+0.4 pp	3.44
Omonia Aradippou	27.3%	40.8%	−13.5 pp	3.67

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Karmiotissa Polemidion to score	81.9%	66.3%	+15.7 pp	1.22
Karmiotissa Polemidion not to score	18.1%	33.7%	−15.7 pp	5.53
Omonia Aradippou to score	74.0%	73.1%	+0.9 pp	1.35
Omonia Aradippou not to score	26.0%	26.9%	−0.9 pp	3.84
Both teams to score	62.3%	50.0%	+12.3 pp	1.61
Both teams not to score	37.7%	50.0%	−12.3 pp	2.65
Karmiotissa Polemidion 2+ goals	48.5%	33.7%	+14.7 pp	2.06
Karmiotissa Polemidion at most 1 goal	51.5%	66.3%	−14.7 pp	1.94
Omonia Aradippou 2+ goals	35.8%	39.2%	−3.4 pp	2.79
Omonia Aradippou at most 1 goal	64.2%	60.8%	+3.4 pp	1.56
Over 1.5 goals	81.4%	71.1%	+10.2 pp	1.23
Under 1.5 goals	18.6%	28.9%	−10.2 pp	5.36
Over 2.5 goals	55.2%	46.3%	+8.8 pp	1.81
Under 2.5 goals	44.8%	53.7%	−8.8 pp	2.23

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

· 1 warning

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Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Karmiotissa Polemidion sample: 1 match
Omonia Aradippou sample: 20 matches
Computed: 3 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 3 hours before kick-off

Warnings

Karmiotissa Polemidion has only 1 match in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.