Saturday, 07/11/2026 at 18:00
33d 17h to kick-offOlympiakos Nicosia – Apollon Limassol
Model updated 5 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Olympiakos Nicosia
- 26%
- Draw
- 33%
- Apollon Limassol
- 41%
| Olympiakos Nicosia | Draw | Apollon Limassol | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 3.80 | 3.03 | 2.46 |
- Total goals
- 2.26
- Over 2.5 goals
- 40%
- Both teams to score
- 51%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Apollon Limassol
41% Apollon Limassol to win
- Attack
- 5th vs 7th
- Apollon Limassol attack v Olympiakos Nicosia defence
- Defence
- 3rd vs 12th
- Apollon Limassol defence v Olympiakos Nicosia attack
- Recent xG form
- -0.21 vs +0.58
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.00 – 1.27
- Olympiakos Nicosia v Apollon Limassol
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Olympiakos Nicosia | Apollon Limassol |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 1.69 · 5th from 3 matches | 1.18 · 13th from 4 matches |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.52 · joint 6th from 3 matches | 1.52 · joint 6th from 4 matches |
| xGD / match | (better) +0.17 · 7th from 3 matches | -0.34 · 9th from 4 matches |
| xPts / match | (better) 1.48 · 8th from 3 matches | 1.04 · 11th from 4 matches |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +0.58 | -0.21 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 39% of the model's distribution.
- Apollon Limassol clean sheet
- 34%
- Apollon Limassol 2+ goals
- 37%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 60%
- Both teams to score: no
- 49%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 17.0%
- 0:1
- 11.0%
- 0:0
- 10.6%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
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Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Olympiakos Nicosia sample
- 20 matches
- Apollon Limassol sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Olympiakos Nicosia
- 1 match
- Away xG sample · Apollon Limassol
- 2 matches
- Computed
- Monday, 05/10/2026 at 00:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.